Miller Magazine Issue: 148 April 2022

95 ARTICLE MILLER / APRIL 2022 Whilst they are a huge producer of grain, they do not export any substantial volumes except rice at 5% of global trade. They are the mouth of the world. A huge population now eating a diverse diet has seen China as a huge proportion of the consumption of the world. While they are a large grower, to meet their con- sumption demand takes large volumes of imports. China is one of the world’s most significant importer across various commodities. The list below shows the average volume imported by China over the past five years. •Barley 8.3mmt •Corn 14mmt •Oats 297kmt •Rapeseed/canola 3mmt •Soybean 93mmt •Rice 4mmt •Sorghum 5.6mmt •Wheat 6.5mmt Whilst those numbers in the previous section are large, they are the average over five years, and something has changed in China. The chart below shows the huge increase in wheat imports during the past two years compared to the previous years. We regularly update on the import volumes into China, as they are an important nation for Austra- lian grains. In 2021, they imported huge volumes of grains. Whilst they didn’t import Australian barley, they have been willing buyers of Australian wheat. China has always been an enigma, with solid data on agricultural production being relegated to rumours and whispers. I had some concerns in the back of my head about the risk of China reverting back to prior import levels. A major problem with the winter crop will likely lead to continued strong im- ports. If their crop is in a terrible state, then they will have to start eating into the nation’s stockpiles. On paper, China holds 51% of the world wheat stockpile. China has been hoarding a lot of grain. I use the term on paper, as recent import programs may suggest that stocks are not as high as the Chinese government or USDA's data suggest. If, as many suspect, the stocks are lower than gov- ernment numbers suggest, this could point to anoth- er year of large imports. If the import program contin- ues, then Australia is currently set to be in the front seat, provided Russia doesn’t steal our trade. Let’s hope they come back for some barley as well.