Miller Magazine Issue: 148 April 2022

96 ARTICLE MILLER / APRIL 2022 Over the past two years, COVID-19 has presented many challenges to global food security. Today, what is happen- ing in Russia and Ukraine adds another significant chal- lenge. Russia and Ukraine play a substantial role in the global food production and supply. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, and Ukraine is the fifth largest. Together, they provide 19% of the world’s barley supply, 14% of wheat, and 4% of maize, making up more than one- third of global cereal exports. They are also lead suppliers of rapeseed and account for 52% of the world’s sunflower oil export market. The global fertilizer supply is also highly concentrated, with Russia as the lead producer. Supply chain and logistical disruptions on Ukrainian and Russian grain and oilseed production and restrictions on Russia’s exports will have significant food security reper- cussions. This is especially true for some fifty countries that depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30% or more of their wheat supply. Many of them are least developed countries or low-income, food-deficit countries in Northern Africa, Asia and the Near East. Many European and Central Asian countries rely on Russia for over 50% of their fertilizer sup- ply, and shortages there could extend to next year. Food prices, already on the rise since the second half of 2020, reached an all-time high in February 2022 due to high demand, input and transportation costs, and port disruptions. Global prices of wheat and barley, for exam- ple, rose 31% over the course of 2021. Rapeseed oil and sunflower oil prices rose more than 60%. High demand and volatile natural gas prices have also driven up fertilizer costs. For instance, the price of urea, a key nitrogen fertiliz- er, has increased more than threefold in the past 12 months. The conflict’s intensity and duration remain uncertain. The likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters of staple commodities could seriously es- calate food insecurity globally, when international food and input prices are already high and volatile. The conflict could also constrain agricultural production and purchasing pow- er in Ukraine, leading to increased food insecurity locally. CORE RISK FACTORS IDENTIFIED Cereal crops will be ready for harvest in June. Whether farmers in Ukraine would be able to harvest them and de- liver to the market is unclear. Massive population displace- ment has reduced the number of agricultural laborers and workers. Accessing agricultural fields would be difficult. Rearing livestock and poultry and producing fruits and veg- etables would be constrained as well. The Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea have shuttered. Even if inland transportation infrastructure remains intact, shipping grain by rail would be impossible because of Qu Dongyu Director-General The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) New scenarios on global food security based on Russia-Ukraine conflict The conflict’s intensity and duration remain uncertain. The likely disruptions to agricultural activities of these two major exporters of staple commodities could seriously escalate food insecurity globally, when interna- tional food and input prices are already high and volatile. The conflict could also constrain agricultural pro- duction and purchasing power in Ukraine, leading to increased food insecurity locally.