Miller Magazine Issue: 148 April 2022

98 ARTICLE MILLER / APRIL 2022 The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shocked the world, leading to terrible suffering, and harsh impacts are already being felt beyond the conflict zone. The war has the po- tential to spark a global food security crisis, driven by two factors: Skyrocketing costs of food for consumers and of fertilizers for producers. This crisis demands an immediate global response to provide relief in the short term, as well as policy changes to diversify the world’s food markets over the long term to build resilience and avoid future crises. Commodity prices were rising steadily before the inva- sion, according to the FAO Food Price Index, which hit an all-time high in February, before the full impacts of the inva- sion could be felt. Prices of cereals and vegetable oils are reaching levels higher than the 2008/9 global food price crisis (see Figure 1). The invasion has created two principal problems that will likely drive food prices higher. It is disrupting production and trade in Russian and Ukrainian cereals and vegetable oils, which command a significant share of the global mar- ket—about 30% of world wheat and barley exports, for ex- ample. It has also interrupted fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus, which together account for a major share of global production. If Russia were to ban exports of its important food crops in retaliation for sanctions, and prices spike, a domino effect could follow with countries imposing their own export bans and restrictions. This has been a common reaction to high grain prices; it happened during the 2008/9 food price cri- sis and was considered briefly by Russia and others early in the COVID-19 pandemic. This would push food prices even higher and create even more scarcity. The combination of high prices and scarce food and fertilizer would hit many lower-income countries hard, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, and potentially push millions more people into hunger and poverty. Carin Smaller Director of Agriculture, Trade, and Investment The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) Overcoming the threats to global food systems from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Russia’s war in Ukraine could lead to one of the worst food crises in decades. Every effort should be undertak- en to avert and minimize the resulting human suffering happening now. But the broader message is clear: To safeguard itself from future crises, the world must also make the necessary longer-term investments in agri- culture and food systems to ensure they are able to provide nutritious food for all people in a sustainable way.