Miller Magazine Issue: 148 April 2022

99 ARTICLE MILLER / APRIL 2022 This is a dire situation. But responding to it can be seen as an opportunity—to fix the problems that helped create it and to build long-term global resilience. The Russian in- vasion of Ukraine comes on top of years of other crises that remain unresolved: The COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, biodiversity loss, and rising global hunger. Part of the solution to the environmental crises we are facing is the inefficient use of chemical fertilizers, which re- sults in runoff, depleted soils, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. Like food prices, chemical fertilizers prices were already rising before the war, an increasing drain on the budgets of governments providing fertilizer subsidies. Now the invasion is likely to drive them up still further. This could provide a greater incentive to improve efficiency in the application of fertilizers. More importantly, shocks and crises have become the new norm, which calls for a fundamental rethink in how food is produced, traded and consumed. The increased frequency and severity of shocks, whether as a result of extreme weather events, pandemics, or conflict, means the world needs to diversify where and how food, fertilizer and energy needs are sourced. The concentration of produc- tion and trade in too few places, and by too few companies, is a real threat to global food security. This does not mean countries should turn inward and seek to become self-sufficient in food production. That would be disastrous and make them even more vulnerable to local or national shocks. Take the Southern African drought of 2015- 2016, which wiped out 30% of the region’s grain production and left 41 million people food-insecure. If drought-stricken countries had not been able to import food, the situation would have been much worse. We need more choice, not less. Markets should be diversified at all levels—global, re- gional, national and local—in order to build resilience and provide more choices for where affected populations can meet their needs when the next shock arrives. Achieving such changes will require both short- and long-term action. In the short term, countries should ad- dress high prices by avoiding export bans of food staples, diverting food currently destined for biofuel production back to the food supply, and providing social safety nets to consumers and producers. IN THE LONG TERM, THREE THINGS ARE NEEDED First, address the use of chemical fertilizers. Countries, international organizations, and private sector stakehold- ers should focus on improving the efficiency of the appli- cation of chemical fertilizers, and on increasing public and private investment in innovation to promote more targeted plant nutrition and alternatives to chemical fertilizers. One important source of public investment could be redirect- ing government subsidies for chemical fertilizers—one of the most environmentally harmful forms of support given to farmers. Repurposing this support would not only reduce reliance on this commodity, it would be a huge win for hu- man health and the environment. Second, strengthen global trade rules to stop countries from banning or restricting exports of food staples, unless they face their own food security crisis. This would require updating the WTO rulebook on agriculture, but also improv- ing the transparency of agricultural markets and rebuilding trust between countries through the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS). These steps could help reassure countries concerned about food security so they do not panic and impose trade restrictions that harm other countries. The upcoming WTO Ministerial Conference in Geneva in June 2022 is an op- portunity to advance these issues. Third, increase the resilience of the global food sys- tem by reducing dependency on a few countries and a few companies for the bulk of agriculture and food needs. This means diversifying, strengthening and improving the way agriculture and food markets function; making them less concentrated, and disciplining excessive market power. Russia’s war in Ukraine could lead to one of the worst food crises in decades. Every effort should be undertaken to avert and minimize the resulting human suffering hap- pening now. But the broader message is clear: To safe- guard itself from future crises, the world must also make the necessary longer-term investments in agriculture and food systems to ensure they are able to provide nutritious food for all people in a sustainable way. * This article was first published on the International Food Policy Re- search Institute (IFPRI) website and is reprinted with permission.