Miller Magazine Issue 108 / December 2018

19 MILLER / DECEMBER 2018 NEWS luding 40.5 million tonnes of wheat. This season, grain exports are expected to be 38-39 million tonnes. One rogue element is weather fluctuations, the key variable for Russia’s crop size, which traditionally raises concern that the government could limit supply du- ring export campaigns. However, domestic prices have been relatively stable so far this season and the risk of state curbs has eased. While Russian success in Iraq and markets like Nigeria could be a huge blow to the United States, Russian expansion into Algeria and Saudi Arabia would be a significant setback for EU wheat. “Russia’s entry into Algeria would be an earthquake. The EU, especially France, still dominates wheat sales there be- cause Russia is excluded and competition from Russia would be a grave danger to the EU,” said another tra- der. “The same goes for Saudi Arabia, which is vital to Germany, Poland and the Baltic States.” Russian wheat has been barred from international tenders in Algeria, one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, for failing to meet the North African nation’s strict bug damage controls. Russian wheat is not currently in the list of origins which can take part in Saudi purchasing tenders due to Saudi Arabia’s high-quality specifications. Algeria’s ne- ighbors, including Tunisia, Libya and Morocco, are all buying Russian wheat. Russian wheat is also going to Jordan and Nigeria, and Moscow has said that it wants to boost supplies to those countries. About 80 percent of France’s non-EU wheat exports have been to Algeria so far this season but its traders have said that it remains to be seen if Algeria chan- ges its terms or forces Russia to meet the current low bug-damage limit. Russian traders, major suppliers to Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh and Vietnam, are focu- sed on maintaining their share of the current markets despite a lower 2018 crop, one of them said. Russia is preparing to send wheat samples to Saudi Arabia for quality tests. “We hope that all barriers in the way of Russian whe- at to Saudi Arabia will be removed after the results of the analysis,” the source familiar with the talks said. REUTERS