Miller Magazine Issue 108 / December 2018

RUSSIA 85 MILLER / DECEMBER 2018 Jet propelled wheat export In 2018/19 Russia faces faster vs. normal wheat export pace. At the very beginning of the season, it was observed as harvesting started earlier than usual at a record pace fol- lowing hot weather. As of Jul 02, 6.6 MMT of wheat have already been collected in the country. When the govern- ment realized, that yield is less than expected, an export curbs cloud came above exporters heads, blowing desire to sell as fast as possible in August and September. Tougher control of quality by Rosselkhoznadzor was introduced at “Last year it was Russia widening export boundaries and haunting buyers with its record 85 MMT wheat crop. In 2017/18 Russian wheat crop is about 15 MMT lower y/y as per the USDA, and it seemed there is no need in wider geography of sa- les. Herewith, things changed dramatical- ly and buyers are “haunting” Russia as it offers relevant quality at reasonable price, when most of other origins faced produ- ction failure (-13.7 MMT y/y wheat crop in EU and at least -3.8 MMT y/y crop in Australia). Meanwhile traditional buyers, Turkey and Egypt having financial troub- les, other destinations, like Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Iraq could open their doors, unless Russia still has as of Dec 01 about 40% of wheat exportable surplus which is about 14 MMT.” Atria Brokers Analytical Department 5G PACE OF RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPANSION