Miller Magazine Issue 108 / December 2018

92 MILLER / DECEMBER 2018 MARKET ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS With small adjustments for wheat, maize and sorg- hum, the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coar- se grains) production in 2018/19 is lowered by 2million tons month-on-month, to 2,079m, about 1% down ye- ar-on-year. The outlooks for US maize and sorghum are trimmed, but the figure for Ukraine’s maize harvest is up from before. Total consumption is placed 1million tons lower than previously, mostly linked to adjustments for feeding and industrial uses of wheat and sorghum. STOCKS AT FOUR YEARS’ LOW The projection for stocks is unchanged month-on- month, at a four-year low of 560million tons, down by 58m year-on-year. At 368million tons, about equal to the previous season’s record, the trade forecast is reduced a little month-on-month, as cuts for wheat and sorghum are partly offset by increases for maize and barley. The Council’s first projection for all-wheat harvested area in 2019/20 is for a rise of about 1%, to 220m ha. Althou- gh gains are anticipated in the EU, Russia, the USA and India, inclement weather in the early part of the growing season is of some concern. RAPESEED AREA MAY EXPAND The global rapeseed/canola area may expand, despite an anticipated heavy fall in the EU. Largely on reduced US yield expectations, the forecast for world soybean production in 2018/19 is trimmed by 2million tons, to 367m, albeit up by 8% year-on-year and a new record. With smaller carry-ins leading to a 5million tons cut in total supplies, world ending stocks are placed 3m lower month-on-month, at 51m. Nevertheless, this would still be a gain of about 30% year-on-year on prospects for heavy accumulation in the US. As a reduction for China’s imports is only partly offset by upgrades for other buyers, the projection of global trade is downgraded by 3million tons, to 152m, steady year-on-year. ASIAN BUYERS TO KEEP RICE FIGURES ROBUST Reflecting slow deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa, the prediction for rice trade in 2018 is cut slightly, but is ste- ady year-on-year and above average amid robust buying in Asia. The 2018/19 global production outlook is fracti-