Miller Magazine Issue 108 / December 2018

onally higher year-on-year, at 491million tons. Given a marginal increase for carry-ins, the net month-on-month rise in supplies is channeled to higher use and invento- ries, placed at 125million tons (-2m year-on-year). Trade in 2019 is seen at a record of 49million tons on firmer demand from Africa and Near East Asia. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) softened by 3% month-on- month. With the exception of maize, all the components were weaker. OVERVIEW At a three-year low of 2 billion 79million tons, world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is fo- recast to be down by 24m year-on-year, as an improved maize harvest (+26m) is entirely offset by reductions for other crops, including wheat (-39m) and barley (-6m). BARLEY AT 23 YEARS’ LOW Grains consumption is projected at a record 2,137milli- on tons, up by 1% year-on-year. For wheat, higher food demand is expected to be balanced by reduced feeding, with overall use little changed year-on-year. Usage in the food, feed and industrial sectors are all seen reaching new highs for maize. As grains production is again expe- cted to be outstripped by demand, a second consecutive season of world stock depletion is envisaged, with the pace of drawdown accelerating to 58million tons (-2m last season). The biggest falls are for maize (-39million tons, to a five-year low), wheat (-11m, the first decline in six seasons) and barley (-5m, to the least in 23 years),