Miller Magazine Issue 108 / December 2018

94 MILLER / DECEMBER 2018 MARKET ANALYSIS but with reduced inventories of sorghum, oats and rye as well. At 26.2% (29.4%), the ratio of world grains sto- cks-to-use is forecast to be the tightest since 2013/14. Global trade is predicted to stay at an elevated level, as record shipments of maize and barley are offset by drops for wheat and sorghum. SOY HARVEST IN KEY PRODUCERS TO INCREASE World soybean output in 2018/19 is predicted to re- bound by 8% year-on-year, to a high of 367million tons, underpinned by larger or record harvests in all major producers. While southern hemisphere prospects are un- certain at this stage, early-season signs have been encou- raging, with seeding progressing at a record pace in Bra- zil. Despite limited chance for growth in China, the rate of expansion of global uptake is likely to tick higher on increased processing in key exporters, led by Argentina. Given a huge crop and the likelihood of a contraction in exports, US inventories are expected to more than doub- le year-on-year as world stocks increase by nearly 30%, to a record of 51million tons. TRADE WAR TO HIT CHINESE SOY EXPORTS Mostly related to an ongoing trade dispute with the US, China’s imports are likely to contract by 5% ye- ar-on-year. Nevertheless, bigger deliveries to relatively small markets may compensate, leaving global volumes steady year-on-year, at 152million tons. POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY FOR RICE World rice import demand in 2018 is forecast unchan- ged year-on-year as heavy buying in Asia, notably Indo- nesia and the Philippines, offsets reduced shipments to sub-Saharan Africa. Prospects for 2018/19 are tentative. Nevertheless, assuming gains in some Asian producers counter a potential policy-driven reduction in output in China, world production could match the previous year’s high. With consumption seen rising by 6million tons ye- ar-on-year, to a new peak, carryovers are likely to cont- ract slightly, to 125million tons, including a fall in China. Major exporters’ reserves could edge up, mainly on an increase in the US. Trade in 2019 is predicted at around record levels, at 49million tons, up by 1m year-on-year on demand from Africa and Near East Asia.