Miller Magazine Issue 109 / January 2019

87 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / JANUARY 2019 Since 2009/10 TY world wheat production increase up to 12%, but consumption rise faster. From 2013/14 TY production was higher than consumption. But not this sea- son. World consumption exceed production and harvesting area shorten. As it expecting, next year situation will be the same, ending stocks will fall as well as stock-to-use ratio and prices will rise. As milling business high developed in Turkey, local producers need to import additional wheat. According to smooth geography position and big supply, main seller for very long period was Russia, Ukraine is the second. It’s explained also throe quality preferetion: for many years Russian wheat had better marks than Ukrainian one. But “World wheat consumption exceed pro- duction and harvesting area shorten. As it expecting, next year situation will be the same, ending stocks will fall as well as sto- ck-to-use ratio and prices will rise. Corn market forecast isn’t so clear as a whe- at. First of all it’s still incomprehensible would Ukraine able to export record crop or ending stocks will increase. Secondly some U.S. farmers as for rainy weather had have narrow window for working the land for corn. Another black swan cold be oil prices and Trade War between China and the USA.” Grain market 2018/19 expectations Elena Pitek (Neroba) Head of Analytics at Marcopolo Commodities SA