Miller Magazine Issue 110 / February 2019

89 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / FEBRUARY 2019 117 million tons of soybeans. We will see, we will see. Production in Argentina was reduced from 0.5 million tons to 55 million due to the reduction in harvested area as per shower rains which is partially offset by an incre- ase in yield. Compensation of these losses led to an increase in sunflower production, which increased by 1.0 million tons to 51.5 million tons in Russia. World soybean im- ports fell by 1.0 million tons, while China’s forecast dec- lined, offsetting growth in Argentina. Soybean exports decreased by 1.7 million tons, while exports from Brazil, the United States, Uruguay and Paraguay declined, of- fsetting growth in Argentina. World imports also dec- lined, mainly by 2 million tons for China due to lower demand for raw materials. The USDA revised its forecast for Chinese soybean imports for the 18/19 year to 88 million tons (90 million tons in December, 94.4 million tons in annual terms and 103 million tons in US dollars according to the forecast on May 18). But the Chinese analyst shows only 83-87 MMT. US oilseed production for 2018/19 is estimated down 1.5 MMT: smaller soybean, canola, peanut, and cotton- seed crops are partly offset by an increase for sunflower seed. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate. Glo- bal 2018/19 soybean marketing-year ending stocks are lowered 8.6 MMT this month to 106.7 MMT, which is an 8.6 MMT increase over the 2017/18 estimate. In ad- dition to croprelated changes, this month’s lower global ending stocks forecast reflects historical balance sheet revisions for Argentina (back to 2009/10) and Brazil (back to 1999/00). Anyway, Stock-to-Use Ratio for US is still twice up YtY. Global S/U also higher than it was last season, but lower that December expectation: 29% in 17/18 TY, 30.5% in Feb numbers vs 32.8% previous report. USDA February crop report made unique adjustments in South America soybean ending stocks over the last 10 years, by cutting Argentina soybean stocks from 16.8 MMT to 8.4 MMT while increasing Brazil soybean en- ding stocks from 0.775 MMT to 1.152 MMT. It looks like US expected to stop Trade Ware and Brazil couldn’t sell as much as they want. CONAB will release updated 2019 Brazil soybean production figures 12/02/2019. But for now Feb-Jan exports last year reached a record 84.2 MMT, 15.4 MMT above the previous record volume in 2016/17. This has reduced carryout stocks to 1.2 million tons, equivalent to a stocks/use ratio of less than 1%. Exports for the trade year ending September 2019 are expected up despite the smaller crop because of record exports observed for the October to January period. While a re- duced supply of Brazilian soybeans available for export could enhance prospects for U.S. exports for the rest of the year and into 2019/20, a rebound in the Argentina