Miller Magazine Issue: 112 April 2019

CANADA 108 APRIL 2019 WORLD-CLASS GRAIN PRODUCTION Canada has a well-established agriculture and agri-food industry with long-standing success in the global marketplace. Canada prides itself on its systems and policies that ensure world-class production standards. Canada’s grains industry is composed primarily of wheat, canola, flax, soybeans, pulses, barley, corn and oats. It is a global supplier in the manufacturing of food products for consumer con- sumption, livestock feed, and in the production of bio-fuels. The industry’s best practices and well-known reputation for inno- vative products and high-quality food have consistently positioned it as a cornerstone of the country’s economy and a driving force in international trade. Canada’s agriculture and food system is a le- ading producer of high-quality, safe products and a key driver of the country’s economic growth. Canadian farms provide a diverse range of crops for domestic and international markets. Wheat is Canada’s largest crop and the single biggest export earner of all its agricultural products. It is one of the top five whe- at exporters on the planet, and the world’s largest producer of hi- gh-protein milling wheat. Canada is also leading exporter of mal- ting barley. In 2017, Canada produced more than 27 million tons of wheat (including durum), over seven million tons of barley and nearly four million tons of oats. Canada’s climate is ideally suited to production of cereal grains across vast regions of the country in 9 of Canada’s 13 provinces and territories. Wheat is Canada’s most important cereal grain crop, oats are also produced in large quantities in both eastern and western Canada. Corn is the most widely grown cereal grain crop in eastern Canadian provinces. According to Statistics Canada, Canada’s major grain crops are wheat, canola, corn, barley, soybeans, lentils, oats, flaxseed, mustard seed, canary seed, chickpeas, sunflower seed and smaller crops such as quinoa, peas and various pulses. OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT AND OTHER FIELD CROPS According to Ministry of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), total crop exports for 2018-2019 are expected to be slight- ly more-than 46%of total supply and reach about 51.2 million tons (Mt), of which about 90% are grains and oilseeds (G&O) and 10% are pulses and special crops (P&SC). AAFC expects 2018/19 Cana- dian total wheat exports (including durum) to reach 22.9 Mt, up 5 percent from last year. Compared to 2017-2018, exports of G&O are expected to be 1% higher due to higher exports of wheat, oats and soybeans. On the other hand, exports of P&SC are forecast to be marginally lower due to lower exports of dry peas. Total domes- tic use is forecast at about 44.7 Mt, slightly less-than 40% of total supply, of which 97%are G&O and 3%are P&SC. Carry-out stocks are forecast to reach 15.3 Mt, about 14% of total supply, which is similar to last year but above the 10-year average. For 2019-2020, expected prices, input costs, delivery opportu- nities and moisture conditions are expected to play a crucial role in determining actual seeding decisions in the spring. However, based on current market conditions and historical trends, the area seeded to field crops in Canada is currently forecast by AAFC to increase by 1% compared to the 2018-2019 crop year, mostly due to lower area allocated to summerfallow. The area seeded to G&O is expected to increase by only 2% while the area seeded to P&SC is forecast to decrease by 6%. Averaged over all crops, yields are forecast to increase compared to 2018-2019 becau- se average yields were reduced last year by excessive moisture conditions in some areas. The production of G&O is forecast to increase by 4% to 89.0 Mt while the output of P&SC is expected to decrease by 2% to 6.5 Mt. Total field crop production is expe- cted to increase by 3% to 95.6 Mt. Despite higher exports and domestic use, carry-out stocks are expected to increase by 8% due to higher supply. Grain prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar. BARLEY For 2018-2019, total domestic use is forecast to increase on hi- gher feed and industrial use. Exports are forecast to remain strong, although slightly lower than last year, due to strong international de- mand. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 28% to 0.9 mil- lion tonnes (Mt) that will be a record low level, according to AAFC. CORN For 2018-2019, imports are expected to increase significantly due to lower corn supply in Eastern Canada and tight barley supply in Western Canada. Total domestic use is forecast to increase to a record of 14.5 Mt due to higher feed, waste and dockage, partly related to the high vomitoxin quality of the crop and trend increa- ses in ethanol production and industrial use. Exports are forecast to decrease slightly due to higher international competition. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease by 17% to 2.0 Mt, which is close to the previous five-year average. The 2018-2019 corn price at Chat- ham is forecast to average $180/t, up 3% from last year, due to higher US corn prices, lower domestic supplies of quality corn and the weak Canadian dollar. PULSES Canada is the world’s largest supplier of pulses, with Canadian pulses being exported to 130 countries around the world. Canada’s land base is well-suited for growing peas, lentils, beans, chickpeas and faba beans. The majority of Canadian pulses are grown in the prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan andManitoba, with bean production concentrated in southern Ontario and Quebec.