Miller Magazine Issue: 112 April 2019

112 MARKET ANALYSIS APRIL 2019 SOYBEANS Brazil’s soybean production for 18/19 was estimated at 113.82 MMT by CONAB last week, a revision of 366,000 MT higher than their previous number and still well below USDA and most of the private esti- mates. Argentina’s soy production will likely reach 56 MMT for this season, 2 MMT more than previously estimated, the Rosario grains exchange said. This com- pares with the latest USDA estimate of 55 MMT beans and last years drought-stricken 37.8 MMT beans. The quality of the soybeans could be impacted especially if there is a return of wet weather. The soybean crop in Argentina was 6.4% harvested late last week com- pared to 15.3% last year at this time. In the northern and the southern areas, the soybeans are 14-17% harvested with these two areas representing approxi- mately two-thirds of all the soybeans harvested thus far. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the average yield of all the soybeans harvested thus far in Argentina is 4,2 kg/ha. The very good yields in cent- ral Argentina are expected to compensate for what is expected to be lower soybean yields, especially in the southwestern production areas. In their weekly crop report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated the soy- bean crop at 9% poor to very poor and 52.3% good to excellent, which is a slight improvement compared to last week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 11.6% short to very short and 38.0 optimum to surplus, which was a slight improvement. The ear- ly planted soybeans are 65% mature, while the later planted soybeans are 21% mature. The Rosario Exc- hange estimated that in the core production area of Argentina, 40% of the soybeans have been harvested with yields averaging 4,3 kg/ha. All this stuff is mainly bearish spatially on Trade War, huge US stocks and low China’s demand. WHEAT Heavy snow accumulations in the US North are pus- hing back planting into May for much of the Spring Wheat area. The US wheat planting ratings are steady and much less average. Ukraine gets some rains just in time, as 87% of spring wheat planted. EU domestic wheat prices get higher as per dry and cold weather conditions for last weeks EU production expectations fall. In MENA region the season started with rain sup- port at autumn, but now it’s also dry. Heartbreaking pictures are getting from Iran were some field covered with water and loses can get up to 15%. India is under Monsoon, El Nino has drooped. Russia is quite good, they planted 1.9 million hectares of spring wheat, 2.5 times more than last year and they could get another record crop or near it. Global wheat supplies are up while world wheat production for 2018/19 is proje-