Miller Magazine Issue: 112 April 2019

113 MARKET ANALYSIS APRIL 2019 cted at 732.9 MMT this month, down slightly from 733 MMT last month, global supplies are projected to grow by 2.1 MMT, with higher projected beginning stocks, up 2.3 MMT. The world wheat harvested area was reduced by 169 thousand hectares this month, to 216.4 million hectares. The largest change was a 182 thousand hectare reduction for Ukraine on final gover- nment data. But we don’t have a clear number from the USA. Egypt’s GASC bought an unspecified amount of whe- at from global suppliers for shipment from May 20 to June 5. At the beginning of April, they were held Fren- ch vessel but in a few days after another tender reverse decision. Each year we hear the same story. Although the US wheat prices have recently become more competitive in the world market, forward prices for delivery through June and August are at a premium compared to other major exporters on a free-on-board basis. The lower-than-expected pace of wheat exports and commitments by Argentina support a reduction in its TY exports by 0.5 MMT this month to reach 13.0 MMT. StategieGrains lowered its EU 2019/20 soft wheat pro- duction projections by 1.3 MMT to 144.8 MMT and also reduced its barley estimate by 800,000 tons. to 61 MMT. As for corn, however, it raised its estimates by 100,000 tons. to 63 MMT. According to the April report of Riverina analysts, the production of Australian wheat in the 2019/2020 mar- keting year (under favorable weather conditions) may reach 23.8 million tons, which is 38% more than the previous season. Also, Australian analysts raised pro- duction forecasts for the season 2019/2020 for other crops in the country, in particular, barley - to 8.6 milli- on tons (+ 6%) and oats - 1.4 million tons (+ 29%). The gross yield of canola could increase by about 50% to 2.9 million tons.Russian wheat exports are slowing down. USDA’s 37 mmt target was left unchanged in the last WASDE, too optimistic, they are almost 2 mmt lower. Now Russia traded 32.5 MMT of all wheat. CORN CONAB estimates released this morning put the Bra- zilian corn crop at 94.008 MMT, up 1.2 MMT from March mainly on a larger second crop. Rosario says Argentinian corn production for this season also seen