Miller Magazine Issue: 113 May 2019

85 MARKET ANALYSIS MAY 2019 Fresh crop and fresh trade war Elena Faige Pitek (Neroba) Head of Analytics Marcopolo Commodities SA “Trump’s Twitter provides fresh White House trading strategy. They deny trade talks and the US stocks get higher while Shanghai Composite crashing. The grain market is low… The market is also very sensitive to planting data updating. Rain, snow and cold weather in the USA has certainly slowed spring planting prog- ress so far. EU and Black Sea Region were cold and dry, but fields in Ukraine, Ro- mania, Moldova, Bulgaria, and Greece, I was seen last week looking good. Russia expects another huge wheat crop near 83 MMT. Argentinian wheat production seeks to rise to 20.4 MMT and thus join the growth of the main exporting count- ries in 2019/20 TY. For the main analysts’ expectation, it could be 149 MMT for EU, 51 MMT for the USA, 34 MMT for Cana- da and 27 MMT for Ukraine.”