Miller Magazine Issue:114 June 2019

UKRAINE 88 JUNE 2019 decade. The population decline of the last 25 years slowed down in the 2010’s, but the problems that emerged in the eastern regions and Crimea gave it a new im- pulse in 2014-2017. In addition, it should be taken into account that a rising number of Ukrainians work abroad – this fact also contributes to the fall in food use within the country. We believe grain consumption for food purposes will remain relatively stable within the coming 3-5 years. It will actually not influence Ukraine’s grain export potential. WHEAT EXPORTS The geographical range of export destinations is quite wide, embracing over 100 countries. The top importers of Ukrainian wheat include North Africa and the Near East. However, a rise in wheat shipments to Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa has been seen since a few years ago. In the long run, the demand for Ukrainian grain will be pushed up by the world population increase along with incomes growth in developing countries, which are the key consumers of cheap Black Sea grain. Also, noteworthy is a change in wheat export des- tinations that has taken place over the last decade. At the time, exporters considerably boosted deliveries to Asian and African countries, primarily due to stren- gthening of their demand for medium-quality mil- ling wheat. In addition, the development of exports to these markets, especially to Southeast Asia, was contributed to a drop in freight rates because of the global crisis. Traditionally, Ukraine supplies wheat to the world market in the first half of season, exactly in July-De- cember. The country sells 60 to 80% of its exportable inventories at this time. FLOUR INDUSTRY IN UKRAINE Total flour production estimated capacity is nearly 7.5 MMT per year in Ukraine. Currently about 45- 50% of this capacity is used by the industry. Ukrainian flour milling enterprises of all sizes, including mills, consume approximately 4 MMT of wheat per season. Flour production in Ukraine is mainly influenced by the following factors: