Miller Magazine Issue: 115 July 2019

88 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / JULY 2019 The twenty-eighth IGC Grains Conference took place on the 11th and 12th June 2019 in London. Main points at the conference; • weather conditions and planting delay at the USA • outstanding markets that could influence on grain mar- ket: biofuel, • finance and hedge • Ag-tech and IT As conference participation covered all the world, key producers and players were represented in London. The conference was very successful with around 320 dele- gates attending. Robert Johansson, Chief Economist at the Department of Agriculture (USDA), spoke about tricky international grains and oilseeds trade. A lot of uncertainty at the moment, no- tably in the US. Current corn and soybean emergence is also a problem. Mr. Johansson mentioned that long-term opportunities exist for increased trade through new trade agreements and the resolution of disputes. It will take sev- eral years to unwind high US soybeans stocks caused by China tariffs. Unclear how much of current sales will ship to China due to tariffs and ASF impact. Johansson’s title slide is over an image of a flooded Iowa interstate sur- rounded by waterlogged fields. setting the tone. Largest one-week change in corn planting progress was in 2013 at +43% nationally with +61% in Iowa. China’s government policies are being refocused on the long-term improvements in grains and oilseeds quali- ty, instead “quantity” approach followed prior, said Hui Zhou, Deputy Division Director, Department of Monitor- ing and Prediction, China National Grain and Oils Infor- mation Center (CNGOIC) As usual, very insightful speech from EU Commission, represented by Michael Scannell, Director for Markets and Observatories, highlighting concerns about Brexit. Regulation of GMOs, pesticides, and herbicides are also of concern. Uncertainty of Brexit is of great concern to the European Union grain industry. Stefan Vogel, Head of Commodities RaboFoodAgri, talk- ing about the situation in soybean trade, where China is shifting to exclusively source from South America, while African Swine Fever (ASF) is not properly understood by the market. “We think 25-35% of pork production in Chi- na will be lost... equivalent to all of the pork production in North America.” While Randy Giroux from Cargill spoke on economic and