Miller Magazine Issue: 116 August 2019

Nigeria imposes a five percent tariff on wheat imports, plus an additional 15 percent levy (earmarked for the national wheat develop- ment program) for a total 20 percent duty. The government’s policy on composite flour (i.e., substitution of cassava flour for wheat flour for use in bread making and other flour-based products) remains in place. The policy offers a 12 percent tax rebate to bakers willing to blend cassava flour with wheat flour for bread making. Industry sources, however, note that full enforcement of the composite flour policy is unlikely until flour millers, bakers, and other stakeholders, overcome technical challenges in developing an appropriate mix of wheat and cassava flours. Nigeria is the largest produc- er of cassava in the world. This West African country produces cassava for 20 percent of the world, 34 percent of Africa. Although Nige- ria has an enormous market for cassava, it is mostly grown for family consumption and local sale by smallholders. USDA forecasts Nigeria’s corn production in MY 2019/20 at about 10.5 MT and corn im- ports at 400,000 MT. Decreases in consumer incomes is lowering demand for poultry meat and eggs. Demand for animal feed, which nor- mally absorbs over 60 percent of the national production, is down. AFRICA’S LARGEST RICE CONSUMER Nigeria is Africa’s largest producer of rice and among the top 15 producers globally. FAS Lagos forecasts Nigeria’s rough rice produc- tion in MY 2019/20 at roughly 7.4 MMT, down about three percent lower than Post’s MY 2018/19 estimate of 7.6 million metric tons. Post expects however that the high cost of rough, paddy rice, as well as high operational costs to constrain large-scale/integrated rice mills from producing at prices that are more competitive. Post forecasts Nigeria’s rice im- ports in MY 2019/20 at 2.4 MT, up nine per- cent higher than the MY 2018/19 estimate of 2.2 million metric tons. Thai and Indian-origin rice (long-grain varieties) dominate imports. Lastly, USDA forecasts Nigeria’s sorghum pro- duction in MY 2019/20 at 6.9 MT, up almost two percent higher than the MY 2018/19 esti- mate of 6.8 million metric tons.