Miller Magazine Issue: 116 August 2019

94 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / AUGUST 2019 The new round of trade negotiations between the Unit- ed States and China resumed, but Donald Trump made it clear that he was not happy with their progress. In a series of tweets on Tuesday 30th of July, he criticizes China, accusing it of failing to fulfill promises and aban- doning agreements at the last moment, and warned that he would respond to the delay in negotiations by the Chi- nese side. Trump mentioned that China’s economy is in the worst state in the last 27 years, while the US econ- omy has become much more Chinese in the last three years. In his Tuesday’s tweet, Trump said that China has lost 5 million jobs and 2 million workers in the manufac- turing industry due to the tariffs it introduced. But at the same time, for example, Americans agrigigants fortunes change a year into a trade war. Analysts cut average an- nual profit estimates for ADM by 6.2% in the past three months, Bunge by 1.8% A record number of Chinese companies defaults on bonds and declares itself bankrupt. The main reason is excessive debt load amid the economic slowdown. Bonds of troubled Chinese Bank of Jinzhou collapsed yesterday by almost 10%. There are rumors in the mar- ket about its imminent collapse. Despite all assurances of Bank of Jinzhou in its sovereignty, its bonds collapsed at the opening of trading on Thursday by almost 10%, but then some of the losses were won back. Recall that in June, China nationalized Baoshang Bank, which was the first such case in the last 20 years, when Hainan Development Bank was nationalized. The collapse of Baoshang Bank clearly alarmed the Bank of China, which uploaded $ 36 billion into the system, which was a record high since January. Then the Bank of Jinzhou bonds fell by 20%. As of the end of June 2018 (there are no financial reports of the bank for later peri- ods), Bank of Jinzhou’s assets amounted to $ 109 billion. But this is not the only one macroeconomics news runs the market. The dollar jumped up briefly in response to the sharp rise in consumer confidence in the US in July - to 135.7 points, which is the highest figure since November last year. The report was published by the research organization Conference Board, which calcu- lates this indicator. In June, according to revised data, the indicator was 124.3 points, not 121.5 points, as was previously announced. Analysts on average expected a less significant jump - up to 126 points. The dollar’s growth has quickly exhausted can be ex- plained by the fact that now all attention is directed to the Fed’s decision Wednesday, July 31, 2019, which can not