Miller Magazine Issue: 116 August 2019

95 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / AUGUST 2019 only lower the interest rate for the first time in 10 years, but also hint at further mitigation of the policy. This amount, most likely, will not be able to significantly weaken the dollar, which makes “even more important” the US need to attract other countries to intervene in the markets. However, “in the current conditions of world trade friction, intervention for competitive devaluation of the dollar” is unlikely to receive international support. As a result, the US movement to weaken the dollar is likely to be ineffective and will turn into half measures, even if they receive some kind of “short-term symbolic” support. Bonds from developed countries and safe-haven as- sets, such as the yen and the Swiss franc, are likely to rise, given that such a move will exacerbate trade ten- sions. All these macro events make a pressure on the grain market globally. But if we talking directly on corn and wheat, we should keep in mind that the Sterling continues to underpin domestic values as it dropped to its lowest level since March 2017 and September 2017 against the US dol- lar and the single currency respectively whilst Euronext wheat was supported by potential wheat exports to Al- geria, the third-largest wheat importer in the world. The northern African country is in the market and once again, France which is in (desperate) need to find demand with confirmation of a bumper 2019 harvest could se- cure good volumes although it will continue facing fierce competition from the Baltic region and the Black Sea. US markets simply could not end up higher with wheat har- vest pressure, improving corn condition, a strengthening dollar and last but not least a tweet from US President Trump warning China that ‘if and when’ he is reelected, ‘the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now ... or no deal at all’. As of the end of last week, 58% of the US corn crop was in ‘Good/Ex- cellent’ condition compared with 57% the week before, 72% last year and 71% on average. As a result, Dec-19 CBOT corn fell and settled at its lowest level in more than two months. The US corn crop is still very late with just