Miller Magazine Issue: 117 September 2019

57 COVER STORY MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2019 The International Grains Council (IGC) held its 28th annual grains conference with a focus on “looking beyond uncertainty” in June 2019 in London. The main outcome was that despite the volatile markets and trade environment, grains and oilseeds operators were making de- cisions based on the main drivers. The growing population which is fast approaching 8 billion and the rising demand from Africa are the main ones. The conference also addressed how the wheat, soybean and rice markets were confront- ing the challenges of food security and maintain- ing a sustainable supply chain. In its five-year supply and demand projections to 2023/24, the IGC identified a sharp increase in consumption of wheat for food due to pop- ulation growth particularly in sub-Saharan Afri- ca. Given that average yield gains are the main driver of production, it is necessary to increase yields to boost stock-levels and avoid excessive volatility in this market. Speaking during the special session on sub-Saharan Africa, Mr. Gerald Masila, Ex- ecutive Director of the Eastern African Grain Council proposed ways to improve intra-Africa trade, namely through market-led approaches to the grain sector, more policy harmonisation, a greater transparency in policy formulation and investment in data and information systems. Dr. Raphael Karuaihe, Head of Commodities at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange expressed the need for further development in price risk man- agement for African farmers and traders and in educational programs. Mr. Jean Charzat, Bunge S.A.’s Managing Director for Agribusiness in Sub-Sahara stated that over the next 10 years Africa’s imports would increase significantly and that African countries would need to develop re- gional stock markets and alleviate bottlenecks at load/discharge. Better port capacity and inland transport would also be crucial in the future. Regarding the soybeans market, after heavy expansion in recent years, global production growth is likely to be modest. Following a dip in 2019/20, output is projected to reach 390m t by 2023/24, equating to an average annual rate of expansion of 1.5%. Led by increases in South America, but with relatively smaller producers expected to boost acreage, world harvested area is seen rising to a little above 133m ha by the end of the projection period – an increase of 5% on 2018/19. Based on a model of adjust- ed trend-yields – which implies a marked fall in 2019/20 – gains in world productivity growth are expected. In order to respond to society needs