Miller Magazine Issue: 117 September 2019

76 INTERVIEW MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2019 South America and the Black Sea growth in produc- tion and exports of major grains and oilseeds), I be- lieve world grain trade is much more prepared today to withstand the side-effects of certain geopolitical risks than it has been in the past. I do not believe the current geopolitical developments put “global food security” at risk. What it does is reshape the flows of global food trade. Take for instance how the U.S. – Russia wheat embargo of the 80’s and how it helped reshape Russia’s role in world wheat trade. The U.S.-China Trade War has a similar potential to reshape trade flows globally for years to come, but with the vast availability of land and new production technologies, it shall not risk global food security. To the contrary, it may incentivize the growth of produc- tion in countries outside of the U.S. and the search for greater food production efficiency in the United States, which could potentially and eventually lower food prices globally. One of the major risks for the grain market is pro- tectionism. Do you think the trade war would lead to a rise in global protectionism? It is human nature to push good things past the point of optimal return, let’s call it the “greed fac- tor”. Amongst other factors, the push for a world with no economic/political/social borders surpassed the point of optimal return and caused a reverse effect worldwide: protectionism. There is a point of equi- librium somewhere in the middle between free-trade and protectionism. We are far from it right now, as the pendulum has swung back towards the protection- ism side. I hope and believe it will eventually swing back towards a healthy middle between free trade and some small yet necessary dose of protection- ism. The trade war, in my opinion, is actually bringing mixed results: more protectionism in some countries which in turn are igniting freer trade in other regions. An interesting paradox indeed… Brazil has huge potential to expand its arable land for agriculture and to feed the boosting world population. Do you think Brazil could become the world’s grain-export powerhouse? It already is a powerhouse with a lot of room for growth as it continues to improve internal logistics to match the potential for production growth due to land availability, climate, technology and expertise. Brazil has increased its grain production but it has logistics, transportation and port capacity problems to supply the world markets. If it aims to increase grain export, Brazil should solve these problems. Do you think Brazil can manage to settle the infrastructure difficulties? Brazil has managed to become a top 3 exporter of major food and industrial commodities (soybeans, corn, cotton, coffee, sugar, beef, iron ore, etc…) de- spite its logistics and infrastructure challenges. I of- ten point out during my international speeches that “Brazil is the country where things work even when they are not supposed to work”, meaning: Brazilians often manage to do a lot with a little. Despite still hav- ing some major logistics issues, there have also been major improvements. In the years to come, logistics and infrastructure developments shall become much more of an added driver than an obstacle to Brazil’s exports. Today, insects can be used as an alternative source of protein. There are many projects ongo- ing in that field all around the world. Taking the rapidly rising world population into consideration, can insects replace the grains? If the consumption of insects as protein increases, how does it affect grain trade? Maybe I am being somewhat shortsighted, but I do not believe such “alternative proteins” will or need to take over as the main source of protein world- wide. Like most things in life, it is advantageous to have options at our disposal, but I do not buy the argument that we shall see a complete overhaul of protein intake habits in the next few years and dec- ades. Sure, we may continue to see an increase in alternative protein sources, but I do not believe it will happen at a level that causes major disruptions to global grain trade. Talk of alternative proteins taking over demand for traditional protein sources worldwide seems over- done, the same way that I believe the thesis that the world will have major food security issues due to in- creasing population in the next few decades is over- done. According to many in the 1960’s and 70’s, we were supposed to run out of food by the turn of the millennium. Not only did that not happen, the world today is a much more efficient producer of foods. The main issue we face is not running out of food but ensuring that the food we produce does not go to waste and reaches those that need it most. We need to invest much more time, energy and resourc- es searching for more efficient ways to ensure the food we produce gets everywhere it needs to with much less waste. We do not have a food production problem; we have a food distribution and accessibil- ity problem.