Miller Magazine Issue: 117 September 2019

SOUTH AFRICA 85 MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2019 amounts more than 11 million tons, and surplus corn is usually exported. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Ser- vice (FAS) in Pretoria forecasts that South Africa could export about 1.0 million tons of corn in the 2019/20 season. On the other hand, post estimates South Africa will have to import about 500,000 tons of yellow corn in the 2018/19 season to augment local produc- tion due to the impact of drought. The total commercial corn crop for the 2018/19 marketing year is estimated at 10.9 million tons, 13 percent less than the 2017/18 season’s corn crop of 12.5 million tons. However, South Africa is still in a position to supply 1.0 million tons of corn, mainly white corn, to its neighboring countries (Bot- swana, Lesotho, Eswatini (Swazi- land), Namibia, Mozambique and Zimbabwe) where import demand increased after the drought. In the 2017/18 marketing year (MY), South Africa exported 2.1 million tons of corn consisting of 1.5 million tons of yellow corn and 544,000 tons of white corn. The consumption of corn in South Africa increased, on average, by about two percent per annum over the past ten years, mainly driven by population and economic growth. USDA projects that this marginal increase in the demand for corn will continue in the 2019/20 MY to 11.2 million tons. DEPENDENT ON WHEAT IMPORTS Recent statistics indicate that the production of wheat in South Africa is under severe pressure. Be- tween 1997 and 2016, the land dedicated to wheat plantings has decreased from approximately 1.4 mil- lion hectares to 600,000 hectares, while wheat im- ports, to meet the growing local demand, have in- creased from 469,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Wheat is produced mainly in the winter-rainfall ar- eas of the Western Cape and the eastern parts of the Free State with considerable annual fluctuations in production. Average wheat production has been about 1.8 million tons a year. There is, however, a distinct downward trend in the area planted to wheat over the past few years. Thus, South Africa has be- come more dependent on imports to meet the local demand. South Africa is the only country in the region with significant wheat production. However, in the past 20 years, and especially after the deregulation of the market in 1997, there has been a decreasing trend in the area planted with wheat despite increasing lo- cal consumption. Declining profit margins saw local wheat farmers scaling down wheat production and switching to other crops like canola, corn, soybeans or increased livestock production. Furthermore, the trend in wheat production has been sporadic over the past 20 years because of unpredictable weather con- ditions. Without an advance in technology or policy changes, the decreasing trend in hectares planted with wheat in South Africa will continue. USDA forecasts that the declining trend in hectares planted with wheat will continue in the 2019/20 mar- keting year, due to the crop’s decreasing profitabili- ty. FAS/Pretoria estimates producers will plant about 500,000 hectares of wheat which could, on average yields, realize a wheat crop of about 1.7 million tons.