Miller Magazine Issue: 117 September 2019

89 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2019 IGC increases its forecast for 2019/20 world wheat production The International Grains Council (IGC) increased its forecast for 2019/20 world wheat production by 1 million tonnes to 764 million tonnes, with up- ward revisions for crops in France, the United States, Ukraine and Argentina partially offset by diminished pros- pects in Russia and Kazakhstan. International Grain Council, an international organization seeking to further international cooperation in grains trade, has published its monthly report on global grain produc- tion, trade, and stocks. According to the August report, the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2019/20 is increased by 11 million tonnes month-on-month (m/m), to 2,159 million, mainly because of a boost for US maize. This is raised by 8 million tonnes from before, to 342 million, down by 7% y/y (year-on-year), but with output prospects still uncertain after a less than ideal growing season. IGC lifted the outlook for global consumption by 2m t m/m, to 2,186m (+1% y/y), as higher numbers for feeding of wheat and sorghum are partly offset by a cut for maize. With larger new crop supply than in the last GMR, and also taking account of bigger opening inventories, the projec- tion for world closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) is up by 13m t m/m, to 598m, albeit still down by 27m y/y at a four-year low. The trade number is virtually unchanged m/m, at 370m t, as trimmed forecasts for wheat and sorghum are balanced by an upgrade for maize.