Miller Magazine Issue: 117 September 2019

90 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2019 With trade data confirming smaller than antic- ipated shipments to key markets, the Council’s forecast for soyabean trade in 2018/19 is cut by 1m t, to 149m, a 3% y/y fall. The outlook for production in 2019/20 has been downgraded by 4m t from July on diminished prospects in the US, where harvested area is likely to contract by 14% y/y. With only a fractional cut to consump- tion, the net reduction in supplies is channelled to a lower stocks figure, down by 3m t m/m, to 41m (55m). The projection for global import demand is trimmed to 150m t, a 1% y/y gain. Reflecting subdued demand from buyers in Afri- ca and Asia, IGC lowered its forecast for rice trade in 2019 by 1m t, to 45m, a slight y/y contraction. On the basis of reductions for leading exporters, global output in 2019/20 is projected 2m t lower m/m, at 501m, fractionally higher y/y. However, due to historical supply and demand adjustments for China, world ending stocks are raised by 16m t m/m, to 178m, a 3% y/y gain and a new peak. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) sof- tened by 4% since the last Grain Market Report, including a particularly steep drop in the maize sub-Index, but with wheat and barley also posting solid declines. WORLD CLOSING STOCKS EXPECTED TO FALL World total grains production in 2019/20 is fore- cast to expand by 1% y/y, to 2,159m t, as bumper harvests of wheat and barley are partly countered by a smaller maize crop. The bigger grains out- turn nearly compensates for tighter opening in- ventories, so total supply is placed only a fraction down y/y. However, with increased consumption, world closing stocks are expected to fall for the third successive season, with the pace of draw- down accelerating. At 598m t, down by 27m y/y, the global grains carryover at the end of 2019/20 is placed at a four-year low. This is entirely owing to a decline for maize, with these seen contracting to the least in six seasons, mostly because of an- ticipated falls in the US and China. In contrast, wheat stocks could reach a record level and, after dropping to their smallest in six years, inventories of barley are expected to post some recovery. Trade in grains (Jul/Jun) is project- ed to increase to 370m t, fractionally exceeding