Miller Magazine Issue: 118 October 2019

18 MILLER / OCTOBER 2019 Andrée Defois President Stratégie Grains / Tallage Wheat price at its lowest Guest Author “Wheat prices have no potential for further decrease after the descent of the last few months; this is especially true given that today’s prices in Russian ports are very much lower than prices in the country’s interior. Even in Rus- sia, prices are flirting with levels at which production margins for farmers will shrink significantly. Thus prices will need to increase during the coming months, with rising Black Sea wheat prices leading the pack and triggering upwards pressure elsewhere. Potential price growth would be amplified if harvest outlooks deteriorate further in Argentina and Australia.” Wheat users hoping for world prices to fall even lower are likely to see their hopes dashed. Today’s prices are already low whereas demand is expected high and sev- eral uncertainties exist in relation to supply. Global wheat production nevertheless rebounded strongly this season in the wake of the very good har- vests in Europe (+12%) and better yields than last year in the Black Sea countries (essentially Ukraine), India, China and the Middle East. In Australia, this year’s har- vest should still exceed last year’s catastrophic result, although the outlook is hardly spectacular because of