Miller Magazine Issue: 118 October 2019

51 COVER STORY MILLER / OCTOBER 2019 FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal produc- tion in 2019 by 2.2 million tonnes, pegging the world cereal output at 2 706 million tonnes. Global wheat production is lowered in October as smaller crops in Australia and the Black Sea countries more than offset larger crops in the European Union and India. Global trade is also lowered, driven by weak- er demand in several key Asian markets as well as in Mexico. Smaller projected exports for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan more than offset higher trade for Canada and the European Union. FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2019 by 2.2 million tonnes, pegging the world cereal output at 2 706 million tonnes, but still up 53 million tonnes (2.0 percent) from the outturn in 2018. The latest cut emanates mostly from reduced prospects for global rice and wheat outputs, which outweighed a bigger production forecast for coarse grains. Global wheat production is pegged at 766 million tonnes, down nearly 1 million tonnes from last month’s forecast, though still a record high. The reduction reflects a cut to Australia’s production forecast on ac- count of continued dryness in eastern regions. This decline more than off- set an upward revision to the production estimate for the European Union, where recent field data indicate better than previously anticipated yields. The latest forecast for global rice production (milled equivalent) is set at 513.5 million tonnes, just 0.8 percent below the high output level registered in 2018. India accounts for the bulk of the month-on-month downward revision, as a series of weather setbacks caused planting de- lays leading to expectations that farmers would plant less than previ- ously anticipated. Production prospects also deteriorated in the United States, where excess rains are now estimated to have triggered more pronounced area cuts than earlier envisaged. Similarly, in the Philippines and China, recent reports indicate a lower area planted in 2019, resulting in a small downgrade of the production forecasts for these countries. By contrast, production outlooks improved in Colombia and Madagascar, where crops have already been harvested and official estimates indicate better than previously anticipated yields. World coarse grains production is forecast at 1 427 million tonnes in 2019. NEW SEASON HARVEST RESULTS AND MARKET EXPECTATIONS