Miller Magazine Issue: 118 October 2019

56 MILLER / OCTOBER 2019 With harvesting of wheat, barley, oats and rye nearing completion across the northern hemisphere, the 2019/20 global grains supply outlook is beginning to crystalize. However, with rowcrop planting now only just underway in the export powerhouses of Brazil and Ar- gentina, projections for maize are somewhat tentative at this stage. Based on conditions as at the end of Sep- tember, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a 1% year-on-year (y/y) increase in world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production, to 2,159m t, which would be the second largest in history. Gains in global out- put are wholly linked to an expansion in acre- age, with average yields seen slightly lower compared to the previous season’s record. The headline figure masks some opposing trends. While worldwide harvests of wheat, barley oats and rye are expected to be larger than last year, the maize and sorghum crops are set to be smaller. Despite heightened concerns about dryness in Australia and Argentina, it is looking like a record-breaking year for wheat production, “The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a 1% year-on- year (y/y) increase in world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production, to 2,159m t, which would be the second largest in history. Gains in global output are wholly linked to an expansion in acreage, with average yields seen slightly lower compared to the previous season’s record. While worldwide harvests of wheat, barley oats and rye are expected to be larger than last year, the maize and sorghum crops are set to be smaller.” IGC: 2019/20 supply and demand outlook Nathan Kemp Senior Economist International Grains Council