Miller Magazine Issue: 118 October 2019

57 COVER STORY MILLER / OCTOBER 2019 with global output forecast at 764m t, 4% more than the season before. While question marks linger about spring wheat (and durum) yield and quality in North America, overall availabilities across the eight major exporters are expected to be ample. Farmers responded positively to last year’s spike in barley prices, sowing the largest area in a decade. With cropping weather also broadly favourable, production is on track to reach 155m t, the most in eleven seasons and up by 10% compared to the year before. Large sur- pluses are expected in Russia, Ukraine and the EU, typ- ically the three biggest exporters, where competition for available export business will likely be fierce. The outlook for maize production is clouded by un- certainty about final yields in the US and acreage de- cision in South America. Despite extremely challenging conditions across the Midwest, the US crop is expected to be significantly larger than was predicted just a few months ago, albeit smaller than last year and below the recent average. Part of the slack may be taken up by Ukraine, where farmers have just started collecting an- other bumper crop, with yields again seen well above the long-run average. The 2019/20 season is just start- ing in South America. After recent gains, maize area in Argentina could be capped by economic woes and sig- nificant uncertainty in the run up to the October presi- dential election, with some producers tempted to switch to lower risk soyabeans. While Brazil could conceivably be an even larger producer this season, planting of the main export crop will not start until after the New Year. Taking into account a smaller crop too in China, world production is predicted to shrink by 3% y/y, to 1,099m t. All-grains consumption in 2019/20 is seen rising by 1% y/y, to 2,186m t. Feed demand accounts for around 45% of overall consumption, compared to 33% for di- rect human food use and 17% for industrial process- ing, with a further 5% used for seed and waste. These shares have remained fairly consistent over the past decade or so. While global consumption is expected to reach a new all-time high in 2019/20, the rate of growth may only be half of the prior five-year average. Feed use is seen expanding more slowly than in the past, mainly owing to weak demand in China, where African swine fever has decimated the country’s huge pig herd. Use for food (mainly wheat and sorghum) will continue to trend high- er, with the year over year expansion seen close to the long-run average. Population growth remains the prima- ry driver of food wheat demand, but with shifts in diets and incomes also important, particularly in developing