Miller Magazine Issue: 120 December 2019

22 NEWS MILLER / DECEMBER 2019 IGC expects grain trade to reach a new all-time high Members of the International Grains Council (IGC) convened for the 50th Council Session in London, on 3 December 2019. In the meeting, chaired by Ms. Nathalie Dubé, Minister Counsellor, Commercial and Economic Di- vision, High Commission of Canada, the Secretariat pre- sented its latest supply and demand forecasts and market developments for grains, rice and oilseeds. At 2,162m t, world total grains (wheat and coarse gra- ins) production in 2019/20 was forecast to rise by 1% y/y, as bigger crops of wheat and barley were seen outweig- hing a decline for maize. Total grains consumption was predicted to climb to a new high of 2,188m t (+1% y/y). Global stocks of grains were projected to contract by 26m t, to a five-year low of 594m, entirely because of a drop in maize inventories. Trade (Jul/Jun) in grains was expected to reach a new all-time high of 375m t (+3% y/y). The world rapeseed area was tentatively seen up by nearly 3% y/y, including gains in the EU and the Black Sea region. Global rice production was predicted broadly steady y/y in 2019/20 as smaller crops in India and China were seen being offset by gains elsewhere. Accumulation in leading producers could see inventories reach a new peak. After declining in the prior year, trade was projec- ted to rebound, but stay below past highs. As the smallest US harvest in six seasons was expected to be only partially offset by larger outturns elsewhere, including in Brazil, global soyabean production in 2019/20 was tenta- tively seen contracting by 5% y/y, to 341m t. Consumption was predicted at a new high but, at 2%, y/y growth would pale in comparison to earlier periods. Mostly due to a draw- down in the US, carryovers were predicted to contract by one-third y/y, to 35m t. With bigger deliveries to China and a host of other markets offsetting smaller shipments to South America, trade was seen little-changed y/y, at 151m t. The Secretariat updated the Council on its ongoing projects: Rice: The Council supported the work being done on the Africa Delivered Price Tool for rice which identifies the most commonly imported types of rice, as well as their points of origin and arrival ports, to generate an index which specifically reflects the costs of trading rice into Af- rica; Pulses: Members discussed the latest developments in the global pulses market and the Secretariat’s 2019/20 work programme which includes setting up of a pulses