Miller Magazine Issue: 120 December 2019

48 COVER STORY MILLER / DECEMBER 2019 organization producing information on processed products, including wheat flour trade, provides accurate market data. According to the wheat flour export figures by countries re- leased by IGC, there has been a contraction of 1 million tons of flour trade in 2018/19 season between the countries cor- responding to 8% in the previous season. Only a small part of this is expected to recover in 2019/20. According to the estimations, cross-border flour trade will reach a total of 15 million 880 thousand tons with an increase of 1 percent. There is no sign that Argentina which fell from 1 million 3 thousand tons down to 876 thousand tons in the 2018/19 season will offset this loss. IGC’s 2019/20 season forecast for the country 875 thousand tons. Looking at Egypt’s exports, unstable figures and sharp ups and downs are noteworthy. Wheat exports, which increased by 79% to 931 thousand tons last year, are expected to de- crease by 35% down to 600 thousand this season. EU countries seem to offset a small part of their 23-per- cent-loss they experienced last year. According to the sta- tistics of the UK-based institution, the export figures that de- creased from 831 thousand to 639 thousand tons last year will be 650 in the 2019/20 season. The decrease in the export volume of Kazakhstan, one of the top countries that come to the mind when it comes to wheat and flour, will continue this season. According to the forecasts, although the last year’s negative acceleration of 19-percent-loss eases down, the country’s flour exports will continue to fall this season by 7%. Accordingly, the export of the Central Asian country in the 2019/20 season will be 2 million 500 thousand tons. Russia, world’s number one wheat exporter, will sustain its dynamism in the flour market in the 2019/20 season. The flour export volume which reached 395 thousand tons with an increase of 11 percent last year is projected to get at 420 thousand with an increase of 6 percent this year. According to the figures, the world champion in flour exports, Turkey will offset the tiny contraction it experienced last year. In the 2018/19 season, the country decreased by 1.4% down to 4 million 628 thousand tons and the export vol- ume of the country in this season is expected to reach 4 million 750 thousand tons. Turkey has been the world’s top flour exporter for the last six years, and it exports flour to over 100 countries. Last year, Turkey exported nearly 3.5 million tons of flour or nearly one-third of the world’s total flour exports. Ukraine, another major wheat producer, will try to dress the wounds of last year’s 30% contraction crisis with a growth rate of 19%. According to the released report, the Black Sea country will sell 500 thousand tons of flour to the world this season. According to ResearchAndMarkets’s re- port, the global wheat flour market reached a consumption volume of 385 million tons in 2018, registering a CAGR of 1.3% during 2011-2018. The consumption volume of wheat flour will reach nearly 411 million tons by 2024. The rise in population coupled with per capita income has increased the de- mand for flour, which has further raised the production of flour. Change from traditional to urban and modern lifestyles of con- sumers has increased the demand for various types of flours in the preparation of fast food items. Furthermore, a rise in health concerns for high-protein flour provides an impetus for flour millers to produce gluten-free flour alternatives. Change in taste and preference of consumers, as well as dietary concerns for manufacturers to develop differentiated products, have im- pacted the overall sales. “Moreover, the development of the flour milling industry in the high-growth developing regions of the world such as the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa are significantly contributing to the growth and expansion of the global market for flour and downstream products, such as bakery and confectionery.” point outs Beste Yildiz, Senior Con- sultant at Farrelly & Mitchell. World Flour Exports 2017/18 2018/19 2019/2020 Forecast ‘000 tons (wheat equivalent) Argentina 1.003 876 875 Egypt 520 931 600 EU 831 639 650 Kazakhstan 3.334 2.691 2.500 Russia 354 395 420 Turkey 4.695 4.628 4.750 Ukraine 599 421 500 USA 346 370 400 Others 5.189 4.768 5.185 World Total 16.871 15.718 15.880