Miller Magazine Issue: 121 January 2020

50 MILLER / JANUARY 2020 #1, 2, 3: Political woes - trade wars, sanctions, revolutions When Trump tweets, grain markets are shivering. At the intersection of 2019 and 2020, CBOT was well supported, when U.S. President Donald Trump said Phase 1 of the trade deal with China would be signed on 15 Jan and that he would later begin talks on the next phase. China, from the other side, has its own unbeloved ones: Canada and China. Here- with, in 2019, Canada has shipped the most wheat to China in 14 years, con- trasting a halt in canola trade amid a dip- lomatic dispute between the countries. As well, China's commerce ministry extended an anti-dumping investigation into imports of Australian barley by another six months (should be completed by May 19, 2020). A long-running tensions with the U.S., Austra- lia and Canada have forced China to source about 1 MMT of wheat from the EU (mostly France) compared with feeble volumes in four previous seasons. The wind of political challenges transforms the trading routes, rearranges the accents, adds obstacles. #4: Economic pushers - Who is on duties today? On December 14, 2019, Argentina’s new left-wing government eliminated export duties "It is quite sad, but nowadays grain trading has more and more political coloring. Fundamental factors could be easily neglected by trade time to time, when Trump tweets, and China retaliates. There is a lot of challenges in grain trading on the start of 2020. We will cover at least 10 of them." 10 foes of grain trading at the start of 2020 Christina Serebryakova Head of Analytical Department & Agricultural Commodities Broker