Miller Magazine Issue: 121 January 2020

CHINA 82 MILLER / JANUARY 2020 prevention and relief must be improved. China will find itself under considerable pressure to maintain steady grain production while ensuring green devel- opment and sustainable resource use. In terms of grain circulation, grain production will continue to be concentrated in core production areas. Transregional grain flows will increase, and there is still the risk of dramatic fluctuations in the grain market. In 2019, China experienced some of the highest food cost increases in recent years driven in large part to African Swine Fever (ASF) decimating China’s pork production, which has led to cost increases of nearly all animal proteins. It imported 88.03 million tons of soybeans, and 20.47 million tons of grains and grain powders, accounting for 4.9 percent of the world grain trade in 2018. According to the General Administration of China Customs data, in 2018 the United States dropped behind Brazil to second place among China’s suppliers of total agricultural, fish- ery, and forestry products. Before 2018, the United States was China’s largest supplier of such products for 18 consecutive years. Since 2018, U.S. agricultural and related exports to China decreased due to higher tar- iffs, trade uncertainty, and slowing economic growth. Soybeans made up more than half of China’s agricul- ture purchases from the United States in 2017, at about $12.2 billion. China bought about 60% of all exports of U.S. soybeans, the main U.S. export crop by value, before the trade war. China imports about $40 billion in soy- beans a year, which are crushed to make meal for use in animal food and oil for cooking. After the trade tension with U.S., China has shifted its overall agricultural policy to promote greater soybean production, meanwhile main- taining self-sufficiency for wheat and rice production. WORLD’S TOP WHEAT PRODUCER China is the world's leading wheat producer, with approximately 17% of global production. Agricultur- al policymakers have undertaken efforts to improve the quality and yield of China’s wheat production. The North China Plain accounts for more than 80 percent of China’s national wheat production. Western re- gions of Xinjiang and Gansu provinces also produce wheat. The United States Department of Agricul- ture (USDA) forecasts 131.5 MMT wheat production for MY2019/20, slightly higher than MY2018/19. MY2019/20 total wheat consumption is forecast slightly lower at 124 MMT. Wheat millers nationwide report that feed mill demand for wheat bran and wheat middlings have fallen on weakening feed de- mand due ASF-related impacts, cutting milling mar- gins. MY2019/20 wheat imports are forecast at 3.5 MMT. China’s wheat millers have a limited selection of origins to supply the growing demand for import- ed wheat product grades and classes to produce specialty products, such as low-protein cake flours Wheat Production, Consumption and Import in China (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 134334 131430 131500 Consumption 121000 125000 124000 Imports 4000 3500 3500 Source: USDA Corn Production, Consumption and Import in China (1000 Tons) Wheat Production, Consumption and Import in China (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 134334 131430 131500 Consumption 121000 125000 124000 Imports 4000 3500 3500 Source: USDA Corn Production, Consumption and Import in China (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 259071 257330 255000 Consumption 263000 280000 282000 Imports 3456 5000 5000 Source: USDA Rice Production, Consumption and Import in China (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Wheat Production, Consumption and Import in China (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 134334 131430 131500 Consumption 121000 125000 124000 Impor s 4000 3500 3500 Source: USDA Corn Production, Consumptio and Import in China (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 259071 257330 255000 Consumption 263000 280000 282000 Imports 3456 5000 5000 Source: USDA Rice Production, Consumption and Import in China (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 212676 212129 207143 Consumption 142487 143790 145000 Imports 5500 4500 5000 Source: USDA