Miller Magazine Issue: 123 March 2020

Australıa 86 MILLER / MARCH 2020 total wheat production, this year it is estimated to be as high as 25 percent. GREATEST DECREASE IN WHEAT SHIPMENTS Due to the estimated smaller harvest, USDA’s estimate for Australia’s wheat exports in MY 2019/20 is also revised down to only 8.0 MMT, 1 MMT lower than MY 2018/19. This is expected to be the third straight year of falling ex- ports. While last year the vast majority of exports came from Western Australia (79 percent), this marketing year it is anticipated that there will be increased shipments from Victoria and South Australia. Final MY 2018/19 wheat exports were 9.0 MMT, down nearly 5.0 MMT from the previous year. The market which saw the greatest decrease in Australian shipments was Indo- nesia, where exports fell by 62. percent compared to last year. This was the first time in over 15 years that Indonesia was not Australia’s largest wheat market. Also, Indonesia imported more from Ukraine, Canada, and Argentina than Australia. DOMINANT PLAYER IN BARLEY MARKET Australia is a dominant player in world barley export markets, representing 30-40 percent of the world’s malt- ing barley trade and 20 percent of the feed barley trade. Approximately eight million metric tonnes of barley is produced in Australia each year; grown over nearly four million hectares across Australia. It is widely grown in ro- tation with wheat, canola, oats and pulses. USDA’s forecast for Australia’s barley production in 2019/20 season is revised down to 8.2 MMT, only slightly less than last year’s crop, and seven percent below the 10-year average. And 2019/20 barley export estimate is 3.8 MMT, up slightly from last year’s level. Exportable supply is anticipated to be similar to last year, and domestic consumption is expected to have a small decline. Sorghum production in Australia is also expected to drop this year as a result of a sharp reduction in area. Multi-year drought through the key sorghum area of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland resulted in exceptionally low soil moisture during much of the planting season (Septem- ber-January), resulting in a sharp reduction in planted area. RICE IMPORTS TO RISE TO RECORD LEVELS Australia’s rice production is expected to remain very small for the second straight year as continued drought and sky- rocketing water prices have kept sown area extremely low. Milled production is forecast at 36,000 MT, down only slightly from last year but 90 percent lower than the 10-year average. Although record prices were offered to farmers to return to planting rice, water costs made it not feasible for most farm- ers. Water prices have skyrocketed in the rice growing region, reaching A$770/ML in January 2020, compared to A$500/ ML in January 2019, A$125/ML in January 2018, and only A$40/ML in January 2017. Because of the second straight year of low production, Australian rice exports in MY 2019/20 are forecast to be only 20,000 MT, the lowest in 10 years and Wheat Production, Consumption and Export in Australia (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 20941 17298 15000 Consumption 7475 9200 8700 Export 13849 9006 8000 Source: USDA Barley Production, Consumption and Export in Australia (1000 Tons) Wheat Production, Consumption and Export in Aus ralia (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 20941 17298 15000 Consumption 7475 9200 8700 Export 13849 9006 80 0 Source: USDA Barley Production, Consumption and Export in Australia (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 9254 8310 8200 Consumption 3700 4400 4400 Export 5662 3750 3800 Source: USDA Sorghum Production, Consumption and Export in Australia (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Wheat Production, Consumption and Export in Australia (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 20941 17298 15000 Consumptio 7475 9200 8700 Export 13849 9006 8000 Source: USDA Barley Production, Consumpti n and Export in Australia (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 9254 8310 8200 Consumption 3700 4400 4400 Export 5662 3750 3800 Source: USDA Sorghum Production, Consumption and Export in Australia (1000 Tons) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Production 1257 1278 400 Consumption 800 1150 500 Export 456 150 50 Source: USDA