Miller Magazine Issue: 124 April 2020

82 MILLER / APRIL 2020 The Metal Rat year 2020 will stick in our memory as extraordinary. Mass media is shouting about deep global recession as coronavirus crisis escalates. Our life is full of stamps, terms&phrazes, like #StayAtHome, lockdown, stocking up, home cooking, solitary confinement, quarantine, self-isolation, COVID-19… Wheat market #StayAtHome 2020 The Black Swan hits the Metal Rat The beginning of the second half of the sea- son 2019/20 (January-February 2020) for the Black Sea wheat prices was expected to pass in upward to stable mood. However, when at the end of January 2020 news headlines star- ted shouting about COVID-19, sellers were not ready for it. They were waiting that un- til end of February or even March they have time to “ride high”. Nevertheless, the picture changed dramatically. On 11 March, 2020, COVID-19 was confirmed as pandemic by World Health Organization. Thus, after rea- ching its pick of $233/MT FOB pport on 24 January 2020, 12.5 pro Russian wheat prices lost about $25/MT during February and half of March and were shown at $206/MT FOB pport on 13 March 2020. Traditionally, Ukrai- ne and Russia give way to American, Europe- an and Argentinean wheat crops in the second half of the season. 2019/20 MY, in a contrast, was noted with a record 2019 Ukrainian whe- at crop, as well as wait-and-see strategy of Russian farmers. Both exporting nations had enough stocks for active export in the second half of the season. Seemed that their plans to Christina Serebryakova Head of Analytical Department & Agricultural Commodities Broker