Miller Magazine Issue: 124 April 2020

83 ARTICLE MILLER / APRIL 2020 Valerii Liulchenko, Grain Broker, Co-Founder Atria Brokers: #stayathome #breadmaking sell at good prices collapsed in a flash of an eye. From the other side of cash register Picture changed dramatically, when virus reached exporting nations – the Black Sea and Europe. Just wit- hin two weeks after coronavirus was confirmed as pan- demic and quarantine was introduced since mid-March in most European countries, offers of Russian 12.5% pro- tein wheat jumped by about $20/MT and totaled about $225/MT FOB pport as of 03 April. Price rally was accom- panied with the absence of sellers on the market. They “self-insulated”, waiting how high the prices could climb, as well as how the local authorities will regulate the mar- kets. Again, force majeure played a cruel joke, but this time with the buyers of wheat, who waited for prices to go down further. Mountain out of a molehill: supply concerns Both Ukraine and Russia hurried to protect their nations from star- vation, which sounded quite scary. On 30 March, Ukraine signed the Appendix to its annual traditional Memorandum, which this time es- tablished the maximum volume of Ukrainian wheat exports in 2019/20 MY at the level of 20.2 MMT vs LY’s 16 MMT [meaning 2.2 MMT will be shipped in April-May-June]. It is very important to underline, that 20.2 MMT is the same volume, which tra- ders planned, when memorandum was signed in autumn 2019. Thus, nothing extraordinary. As well, in the beginning of Ap- ril, Russian government officially approved the AgMin’s proposal to set up a 7.0 MMT grain export quota for April-May-June. Again, roughly those volume, which the country would have exported in that period regardless to the introduction of the quota. Panic buying in the MENA region Since 11 March and until 06 April, MENA region and Turkey bought within international tenders about 1.8 MMT of wheat. It is about 40% more vs. 1.25 MMT du-