Miller Magazine Issue: 124 April 2020

Venezuela 91 MILLER / APRIL 2020 tion will drop 10,000 metric tons to 590,000 tons. The marginal drops reflect continued emi- gration and low per capita consumption. NGOs operating in Venezuela estimate per capita rice consumption between 20 and 23 kilograms per person per year. In MY 2020/21, post forecasts Venezuela im- port 450,000 metric tons of rice. The opening of imports to the private sector discussed above has allowed rice imports to remain mostly sta- ble. There is some cross-border trade with Co- lombia, which is mostly unreported and may ac- count for as much as 50,000 MT of rice imports. Post estimates that MY 2019/20 rice imports will reach 460,000 metric tons based on actual port arrivals to date and additional volumes ar- riving by land from Colombia. CORN Post forecasts further decrease in Venezuelan corn production in MY 2020/21. Area planted is expected to fall an additional 33 percent to 100,000 hectares, while yields drop modestly. With decreasing area, post estimates that total production will fall to 280 metric tons. The post is also decreasing MY 2019/20 production 10 percent to 450,000 metric tons on fuel shortag- es expected to negatively impact harvest. Forecasts for MY 2020/21 illustrate drops in consumption consistent with decreases in pro- duction. Post forecasts total consumption in MY 2020/21 to reach 800,000 metric tons, 300,000 metric tons. Post estimates that consumption in MY 2019/20 will only reach 950,000 metric tons, 150,000 tons below official estimates. The current year downward revisions are necessary as imports have not made up for anticipated production drops. USDA post forecasts that total corn imports in MY 2020/2021 will fall to 440,000 metric tons. Private importers are currently limited by access to hard currency and cash flow, as many are unable to access credit for imports. The de- crease assumes that the Maduro government will continue to allow the private sector to con- trol imports. An increase in food-for-oil deals or similar future government arrangements could drive up imports. Almost all yellow corn is imported from the United States and white corn from Mexico. The post is decreasing MY 2019/20 imports 50,000 on actual shipments to date. Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agri- cultural Information Network (GAIN) report 9 - 11 July