Miller Magazine Issue: 125 May 2020

105 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / MAY 2020 yield forecasts. In East Australia, enough rain increases the potential for a new wheat crop. Wheat export from French ports remains quite active, but traders note that buyers are more interested in the grain of the new crop. The American wheat market is falling on the news about improving weather conditions in the EU and the Black Sea region, which increases the potential of the new crop. Chi- cago July Wheat futures fell to their lowest level since Mar- ch 19. Argentina offers wheat with a protein of 11.5% of the old crop with shipping in June at $ 235 / t FOB Up River, and a new crop with shipping in December at 200 $ / t FOB Up River. Due to concerns about a possible next increase in export duties, last week Argentine farmers sold 485 thousand tons of new crop wheat, while a year ago this figure was only 46 thousand tons. The Moldovan Ministry of Agriculture reported that as a result of the drought, the country could lose 40- 50% of the new wheat crop. Next week, the agency promises to publish detailed indicators of grain production. In Romania, part of the crop was also severely affected by the drought. Rains brought price relief but ahead is projected to be very hot and dry summers. CORN Unlike wheat, with the introduction of strict quarantine measures, it feels extremely bad. Production is growing year by year. The USA and Ukraine have increased the area. Consumption is falling at a record pace since the ethanol market is dead. In addition, do not forget about the second factor that puts pressure on the American corn futures mar- ket. Meat production is declining due to the suspension of factories. HoReCa practically does not work, which means there is no demand for livestock. Feed intake is falling. The US export potential for corn may well exceed expectations, and the world will enter the new season with large runoffs. But nothing can last forever. A slight weakening of qu-