Miller Magazine Issue: 125 May 2020

18 NEWS MILLER / MAY 2020 WTO members made a joint statement for the free flow of agriculture and food products in the world. Currently, 44 countries in the world need food support. We expect price fluctuations in foreign markets will con- tinue because of the coronavirus crisis and... • Measures about international trade will determine pri- ces, • Governments will choose to increase strategic stocks, • Technology and mechanization in agricultural activities will increase, • Technology and digitalization will be more on the agen- da, • İmportance of e-commerce will increase for food and agriculture, • Ornamental plants, horticulture, meat, vegetable-fruit, out-of-home consumption will tend to decrease, • Demand for staple food like flour, pasta, rice, bulgur, and pulses will increase, • Agricultural land will be more precious, • Regional logistic hubs will be more important, • Bilateral agreements and agricultural cooperation will gain importance, • Financing agriculture will be among the most critical is- sues. How can we evaluate the recent trends in terms of their effects on Turkey? Most of the main agricultural products are originated from the area where modern-day Turkey was established. Turkey is superior to its competitors in terms of some gra- in-based products and pulses. Turkey is the largest flour exporter and second-largest pasta exporter globally. When we take all grain-based products into account, Tur- key is among the 3 largest exporters with 5,5 million tons of finished products in 2019. Food shortage has not been an issue since the Coronavirus pandemic began and stocks will be available until the new harvest season. Let’s have a look to the figures as the new harvest sea- son approached; • durum wheat planted areas are expected to increase by 10% and wheat planted areas by 1 to 2 percent. Barley planted areas will increase by 5%. • weather conditions have been largely positive for plan- ting, • the yield is expected to rise by 2 to 3 percent year-on-ye- ar, • red lentil planted areas will grow by 20%. Now as a result of currency depreciation, local raw ma- terials are cheaper in Turkey compared to international pri- ces. This is an important situation in terms of market deve- lopments and price movements during the harvest season. There are also important risks like; shrinking grain planted areas, tendency to use fertile lands for perennial plants (citrus and fruit trees at Cukurova, grapes at the Agean region, etc.), increased feed imports as a result of corporatization of husbandry. Agricultural exports of Tur- key have a value of 18 billion dollars but 55% of that is in the scope of the inward processing regime. In terms of pulses, there is a production surplus for chickpeas but gap far haricot beans and lentils. Current problems for the sector can be listed as logistic issues, container availabi- lity, restrictions for truck movements, dec- reased demand for some products (fish exports decreased by 40%). The Turkish tourism sector, which is a significant reve- nue source, is experiencing heavy issues. On the other hand, Turkey might have advantages to export some products as an agriculture, food, and trade hub. Turkey may have the opportunity to export more grain-based finished products, frozen food, pulses, and vegetables-fruits and may supply the United Nations more food products to be sent for aid. Turkey will be a regional hub for ship- ment of agricultural products thanks to global and regional projects like the Ba- ku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. It has also potential to be a regional hub for commodity ex- change and electronic trade of agricultu- ral products. Turkey Specialized Products Exchange has been taking firm steps to achieve this goal.