Miller Magazine Issue: 125 May 2020

21 NEWS MILLER / MAY 2020 Narendra Modi imposed a 21-day lockdown with just a few hours’ notice on March 25, leaving many of its 120 million migrant laborers struggling to get home and with no money for rent, food or transport. Experts fear that the delay in the harvesting of crops, mainly wheat may lead to serious food security issues in the two nuclear neighbors, which together share 1.5 bil- lion of the total world population. Supply problems in one place are quickly felt on the other side of the world. In Canada, imports of specia- lity Indian vegetables such as onions, okra, and eggplant have dropped by as much as 80% in two weeks as air cargo space dwindled, said Clay Castelino, president of Ontario-based Orbit Brokers, which helps shipments cle- ar customs. Castelino figured the sharp decline meant the food had simply gone to waste: "With perishable food, once it's gone, it's gone," he said. In Florida, a lack of Mexican migrant laborers means watermelon and blueberry growers face the prospect of rotting crops. Similar shortages of workers in Europe mean vegetable farms are missing the window to plant. Such sprawling food production and distribution sho- cks illustrate the pandemic's seemingly boundless capa- city to suffocate economies worldwide and upend even the most essential business and consumer markets. There has been limited disruption so far to supplies of staple grains such as rice and wheat, although problems with planting and logistics are mounting. The potential impact of planting and harvest disrupti- ons is most acute in poorer countries with big populati- ons, said Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). SHORTAGE OF MIGRANT WORKERS IN EUROPE Spain has a shortage of migrant workers from countries such as Morocco who cannot travel. In Italy, about 200,000 seasonal workers will be needed in the next two months. The government may have to ask people receiving state benefits to pick the fruit and vege- tables, said Ivano Vacondio, head of Italy's Food Association Federalimen- tare. In France, Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has issued a rallying cry to what he called France's "sha- dow army" of newly laid off workers to replace the usual crews of migrant workers on the farms. "If the call is not heard, the production will remain in the fields, and the entire sector will be damaged," said Christiane Lam- bert, head of France's largest farm union, FNSEA. In Brazil - the world's top exporter of soybeans, coffee, and sugar - farm lobby CNA said the industry faces a range of problems, including challen- ges hiring truck drivers to haul crops and a shortage of spare parts for farm equipment. In Argentina, the world's top exporter of soymeal, exports have been delayed as the government ramps up inspecti- ons of incoming cargo ships. The emerging supply-chain disruptions are much dif- ferent than the food crises of 2007-2008 and 2010- 2012, when droughts in grain-producing nations caused shortages that led to higher prices, unrest and riots in several countries. Those price spikes were driven in part by state hoarding of rice and other staples. Now, stap- le grain supplies are relatively plentiful and global prices have been low for years as farmers in the United States, Brazil and in the Black Sea region have planted more and improved yields. Although there are signs that big importers such as Iraq and Egypt are boosting grains purchases amid rising food security concerns, other countries are boosting exports. Second-largest rice exporter Thailand, for instance, is ta- king advantage of higher rice prices by increasing exports from stockpiles. Top rice exporter India, however, has stopped rice exports due to labor shortages and logistics problems. Third-largest exporter Vietnam has also curbed exports. African nations - where many people spend more than half of their income on food - are among the most vul- nerable to disruptions in staple food supplies. The conti- nent is the fastest-growing consumer of rice, accounting for 35% of global imports and 30% of wheat imports. Sub-Saharan Africa alone is the third-largest rice con- suming region, yet holds the smallest grain inventories - relative to demand - of all regions, because of tight government budgets and limited storage. While the ear- lier food crises involved supply shocks, today the problem is getting plentiful supplies to the people who need it - many of whom have suddenly lost their income.