Miller Magazine Issue: 126 June 2020

ROMANIA 82 MILLER / JUNE 2020 by eight percent in MY 2020/21 from the previous year, which would be a five-year low in average yields. Total wheat production is forecast to fall from 8.6 MMT in MY 2019/20 to 8.3 MMT in MY 2020/21, a 3.5-percent decline. This estimate may be further adjusted, pending weather upcoming conditions. Imports are forecast to increase by 10 percent, while ex- ports are projected to be stagnant. Egypt, which was the leading wheat buyer during the first seven months of the MY 2019/20, increased its purchase from Romania by 10 percent. Jordan (500,000 MT) ranked second, followed by South Korea, Sudan, and Thailand outside EU. Only 20 per- cent of Romanian wheat exports are shipped to other EU countries, with Spain and Italy as Romania’s main markets. CORN HARVEST TO REACH 14.0 MMT The MY 2020/21 corn area planted is forecast to re- main at 2.65 million HA following last year’s sharp eight percent increase. The corn area may see a marginal up- tick if some farmers convert winter wheat and/or barley acres into corn, similar to last year’s corn displacement of the rapeseed area. Some corn may also displace sunflower acres, given this year’s lack of a neonicotinoid derogation for sunflower. Although farmer organizations pushed hard for additional sunflower and corn neonicotinoid deroga- tions, in January 2020 the Ministry of Agriculture approved a derogation only for corn.  The spring 2020 corn planting season is complete. Given current weather conditions and assuming similar precipita- tion levels to last year, corn yields are anticipated to decline only marginally. The corn harvest is forecast to reach 14.0 MMT in MY 2020/21, slightly below last season. Corn exports in MY 2019/20 are forecast to decline some- what from 2019/20’s record of 7.1 MMT. Romania will like- ly ship nearly half that much to other EU countries. Domestic feed consumption is forecast to remain relatively stable. Romanian’s corn area increased by about 10 percent year-on-year (250,000 HA) in MY 2019/20, as poor con- ditions for rapeseed incentivized some farmers to convert rapeseed acres into corn. Total corn production reached an estimated 14.3 MMT in MY 2019/20, a 2.14-percent increase over previous year’s crop. Considering the large harvest, corn exports are forecast to expand by 22 per- cent. The higher prices in earlier calendar year 2020 boost- ed exports. During the first four months of MY 2019/20, exports to non-EU markets doubled, while deliveries to EU countries grew by 20 percent. Romania’s main non-EU corn markets are Turkey, Egypt, South Korea, and Lebanon. Spain, Italy, and the Nether- lands are its primary export markets within the EU. About half of corn exports will be delivered to non-EU markets. Domestic feed consumption is expected slightly lower, due largely to the continued presence of African swine fever.  BARLEY Barley remains mainly an export crop. Although winter barley planting conditions in fall 2019 were difficult be- cause of the drought, they were better than conditions for winter rapeseed, which should translate into a marginal- ly higher area for barley. Like wheat, the barley crop was in good condition until about mid-March, when weather conditions began to negatively affect plant development. Dry weather is expected to lower yields by seven percent, especially in eastern and southeastern areas. Based on the current crop conditions and area, total barley production is forecast at 1.55 MMT, a threepercent decline from 1.6 MMT in MY 2019/20. Exports are forecast to marginally lower due to the forecast shorter harvest, with 85 percent of Romanian barley exports shipped to non-EU markets. MY 2019/20 barley production increased by three per- cent and exports are forecast to grow marginally. During the first seven months of MY 2019/20, barley exports grew by 10.6 percent. Saudi Arabia remains Romania’s top market, followed by Libya and Turkey.  EU deliveries ac- counted for under 20 percent of exports, with Spain and the Netherlands as major buyers. XXI International Grain Round ‘Grain Market – Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow’ September 22 – 25, 2020 Gelendzhik, Russia 2020 XXI Russian Grain Union 7, Staraya Basmannaya St., building 2, office 8, Moscow , Russia , 105064 +7 ( 495 ) 369-44-53, +7 ( 977 ) 972-97-40 rzs@grun . ru , tag@grun . ru