Miller Magazine Issue: 126 June 2020

84 85 MARKET ANALYSIS MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / JUNE 2020 MILLER / JUNE 2020 Bear years “Limited supply in the south of the Black Sea holds wheat prices, but global stocks look better so market went down. The initial outlook for 2020/21 international wheat is for larger supplies, increased trade, greater consumption, and higher ending stocks. The corn market is ‘dead’. Cheaper and cheaper… We starting the new season like bears, but bulls is over the corner.” Elena Faige Neroba Business Development Manager Maxigrain The market is getting ready for the start of the new season. Early grain harvesting started in the USA and Ukraine and Russia. Barley yields are poor as usual at the beginning of harvesting but markets already feeling harvest pressure. The corn market is "dead". According to Informa, in 2020, corn in the US will amount to 94.1 million ac., which is 2.9 million ac. less than the WASDE forecast and slightly lower than their previous estimate. Crop ratings fell by four points to 71% GD / EX, but remained above 59% last year and 69% on average over 5 years. Chinese Sinograin will sell 663kMT of corn harvest 2016 from state stocks on June 19. Ethanol production in the US still far from pre-COVID levels and corn stocks much higher than usual. S/U Ratio increased from 27.9% 2019/20 to 29%. Corn looks overproduced. The US corn crop is projected at a record 16.0 billion bushels, up from last year on the increased area and a return to trend yield – weather conditions is favorable and planting progress is normal Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase from the 2019/20 COVID-19 reduced levels, based on expectations of a rebound in US gasoline consumption which fell on quaranti-