Miller Magazine Issue: 127 July 2020

34 NEWS MILLER / JULY 2020 The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season, with improved outlooks for Australia and China more than offsetting a downward revision for the European Union. At 2,237m t, total grains production in 2020/21 is projected to be up by 62m y/y, led by a jump in maize output (+55m) to a new peak, but with wheat (+6m) also at a record. IGC raises forecast for 2020/21 world wheat production With outlooks for production and consumption of total grains (wheat and coarse grains) trimmed, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for world stocks at the end of 2019/20 slightly m/m (month-on-month). In IGC’s monthly update, at an all-time high of 386m t, the forecast for trade (Jul/ Jun) is lifted by 6m m/m, including higher numbers for wheat, maize, barley and sorghum. Increases for maize, barley, oats and wheat boost the projection for produ- ction in 2020/21 by 7m t m/m, to a record 2,237m, an increase of 62m y/y (year-on-year). The figure for consumption is the same m/m, as a cut for demand in the industrial sector is offset by upward adjustments for food and feed. Higher opening inven- tories and larger output add 8m t to the projection for world 2020/21 ending stocks, seen building by 20m t y/y, to a three-season high of 635m. Mostly on an upgrade for wheat shipments, grains trade in 2020/21 (Jul/Jun) is placed 3m t higher m/m, at 390m. The Council’s 2019/20 world soyabean output esti- mate is pegged marginally higher m/m and, with up- take trimmed slightly, global stocks are raised by 3m t, to 44m, representing a marked tightening y/y. Lin- ked to heavier than expected shipments to China, the trade outlook is upgraded to a peak of 155m t, a 2% y/y gain. A nominal increase for Brazil lifts the proje- ction for 2020/21 global production to 364m t, up by 8% y/y and a record. Mainly reflecting higher opening stocks, carryovers are boosted to 45m t, a modest y/y expansion. Given assumed firm import demand from China, world trade is placed at a peak of 160m t, up 1m m/m. With few changes to the 2019/20 global rice supply and demand balance sheet from previously, end-sea- son carryovers are maintained at 176m t, a record level on gains in China and leading exporters. The 2020/21 production outlook is trimmed m/m, with the net re- duction in total supplies leading to a modestly lower figure for inventories, placed at 180m t, albeit still a new high. The projection for trade in 2021 is unchan- ged m/m, at 44m t (+4% y/y). The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) strengthe-