Miller Magazine Issue: 127 July 2020

35 NEWS MILLER / JULY 2020 ned by 1% m/m, with gains for maize, soyabean and rice export quotations outweighing falls for wheat and barley. GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE IS PREDICTED AT A NEW HIGH World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2019/20 is expected to climb by 37m t y/y, to 2,175m, including record harvests of wheat and bar- ley. Expected increases for food and feed are seen outweighing an anticipated drop in industrial demand, to lift total consumption by 15m t y/y, to 2,181m, leading to a 5m y/y drawdown of stocks. Global trade (Jul/Jun) is predicted at a new high of 386m t (+22m y/y), including record shipments of wheat and maize. At 2,237m t, total grains produ- ction in 2020/21 is projected to be up by 62m y/y, led by a jump in maize output (+55m) to a new peak, but with wheat (+6m) also at a record. IGC increased its global wheat production forecast by 2 million tonnes to 768 milli- on, up from the prior season’s 762 million. Australia’s wheat crop was seen at 26.2 million tonnes, up from a previous projection of 24.0 million and sharply above the prior season’s 15.2 million. While consumption prospects are somewhat uncer- tain, all components of demand are assumed to rise, taking total use to a fresh high of 2,218m t (+37m y/y). As projected supplies are more than ample to meet anticipated demand, the first build-up of global stocks in four years is expected, placed 20m t higher y/y, at 635m; this includes increases for wheat and barley, but a fourth successive depletion of maize in- ventories, to a seven-year low. Led by the twelfth annual expansion of maize shipments, total grains trade is seen growing by 5m t y/y, to a record 390m. Although Brazilian output rea- ched a new high, world soyabe- an production fell by 7% y/y in 2019/20 on a significantly redu- ced US harvest, with declines, too, in Argentina, Canada, India and Ukraine. And with total use edging up, carryovers are seen contracting sharply on a sizeable reduction in the US. Trade is predicted at a high of 155m t on bigger deliveries to Asia. On the basis of a rebound in US production, world output in 2020/21 could reach a peak of 364m t, an 8% y/y gain. With consumption growth likely to quicken, in- ventories are predicted to increase only marginally, with exporters’ stocks set to tighten. Traded volumes are projected to expand by 3% y/y. Despite record production in India, smaller crops el- sewhere in Asia and in other regions resulted in a mar- ginal y/y fall in global rice production in 2019/20. Total use is seen at a new high on population growth and efforts to ensure food security in key consu- mers. Inventories are li- kely to increase on gains in China and key expor- ters; linked to accumula- tion in India, aggregate stocks in the five major exporters are predicted to climb by 10%, to 42.9m t. With elevated international prices and state support seen un- derpinning expanded acreage, world producti- on in 2020/21 is projec- ted to rise by 2% y/y, to a record of 505m t, whi- le uptake and carryovers may scale fresh peaks. Trade is forecast to reco- ver to 44m t in 2021 on stronger demand from buyers in Africa in par- ticular.