Miller Magazine Issue: 127 July 2020

90 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / JULY 2020 al. The market expects 25 -26 wheat MMT on controlled Ukraine territories. Wheat production in Russia is also overestimated. IKAR forecasts a yield of 78 MMT (instead of 79.5). Refinitiv estimates production at 79.2 MMT (+2% from previ- ous expectations), SovEcon lowered expectations to 80.9 MMT (instead of 82.7) due to drought in the southern regions. It is pos- sible that “targe- ted” quotas will be applied. Bulgaria’s production is offi- cially estimated by the government at 4-4.1 MMT, and much less by local analysts. A year before the elec- tion, according to market partici- pants, the gover- nment does not want to recognize its own insolven- cy and does not recognize the fact that in some regi- ons, productivity has fallen by half. Romanian crop expectations vary widely. Local players rate it at no more than 5MMT, as the country's leadership has previously stated, and Coce- ral and USDA forecasts are more optimistic and fluctuate around 8MMT. The state of winter wheat in the USA GD / EX decre- ased to 51% compared to 64% last year. However, the pace of cleaning progressed from 41% to 56%, against 42% at the same date last year, but this corresponds to a 5% average of 55%. The French Ministry of Agricul- ture predicts that soft wheat harvest in France will fall to 31.31 MMT, or 21% from last year's 39.55 MMT. This will be 12.4% below the 5-year average and will be the second largest minimum soft wheat crop in France since 2004. Jordan purchased 60kMT Romanian 12.5% wheat in November at $ 236.95 / MT. Egypt at the next tender purchased 230 kMT of Russian 12% wheat with delivery August 8-18 at 1-3 USD / MT cheaper than the previous tender. Thailand has announced a tender for the supply of 193kMT of wheat. Grain is requested in three batches from October to December, of optional origin, with the exception of Russia, Brazil and Pakistan . Thus, Egypt is restrained by the news about the growth of supply, first lowering purchase prices, but increasing procurement volumes. The EU exports wheat at a record pace. Compared to last season, 68% more were sold in 2019/20. Austra- lia has signed a cooperation agreement with Indonesia. After a deterioration in relations with China and in light of a decrease in Indonesia's purchases of Australian whe-