Miller Magazine Issue: 128 August 2020

38 NEWS MILLER / August 2020 The fight against the global Covid-19 pandemic is causing unprecedented uncertainties in global food supply chains, with potential bottlenecks in labour markets, input industries, ag- riculture production, food processing, transport and logistics, as well as shifts in demand for food and food services, the U.N.'s food agency and the OECD said. Rising uncertainties from Covid-19 cloud medium-term agricultural prospects In the short term, the economic and social impacts of the pandemic interrupt the generally positive medi- um-term outlook for global agricultural production and food consumption. Governments face the challenge to create balanced policies that address immediate needs, such as labour shortages and create durable conditions for the agricultural sector to ‘build back better,’ according to a new report presented by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría and UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Director-General QU Dongyu. The joint OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 report finds that over the next ten years supply growth is going to outpace demand growth, causing real prices of most commodities to remain at or below their current levels. Fluctuations in the driving factors of supply and demand could lead to strong price variations around this general path. At the same time, a decrease in disposable incomes in low-income countries and households caused by Covid-19 is expected to depress demand in the early years of this outlook and could further undermine food security. An expanding global population remains the main dri- ver of demand growth, although the consumption patter- ns and projected trends vary across countries in line with their level of income and development. Average per capi- ta food availability is projected to reach about 3,000 kcal and 85 g of protein per day by 2029. Due to the ongoing transition in global diets towards higher consumption of animal products, fats and other foods, the share of staples in the food basket is projected to decline by 2029 for all income groups. In particular, consumers in middle-income countries are expected to use their additional income to