Miller Magazine Issue: 128 August 2020

39 NEWS MILLER / August 2020 shift their diets away from staples towards higher value products. Meanwhile, environ- mental and health concerns in high-income countries are expected to support a transi- tion from animal-based protein towards al- ternative sources of protein. Open and transparent international mar- kets will be increasingly important for food security, especially in countries where im- ports account for a large share of their total calorie and protein consumption. “A well-functioning, predictable international trade system can help ensure global food security and allow producers in exporting countries to thrive,” Mr Gurría said. “Expe- rience has shown that trade restrictions are no recipe for food security.” FAO Director-General Qu said: “We need better policies, more innovation, increased investments and greater inclusiveness to build dynamic, productive and resilient agricultural and food sectors.” About 85 percent of global crop output growth over the next decade is expected to come from yield improve- ments resulting from higher input use, investments in pro- duction technology and better cultivation practices. Mul- tiple harvests per year will account for another 10 percent of crop output growth, leaving only 5 percent to cropland expansion. By 2024, aquaculture production is projected to overtake capture fisheries as the most important source of fish worldwide. Global livestock production is expected to expand by 14 percent, faster than the projected incre- ase in animal numbers. Feed use will expand in line with aquaculture and livestock production as feed efficiency improvements will be counterbalanced by an increase in feed intensity due to reduced backyard farming. The Outlook underscores the continuing need to in- vest in building productive, resilient and sustainable food systems in the face of uncertainties. Beyond Covid-19, current challenges include the locust invasion in East Africa and Asia, the continued spread of African swine fever, more frequent extreme climatic events, and trade tensions among major trading powers. The food system will also need to adapt to evolving diets and consumer preferences and take advantage of digital innovations in agro-food supply chains. Innovation will remain critical in improving the resilience of food systems in the face of multiple challenges. Assuming the continuation of current policies and te- chnologies, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to grow by 0.5 percent annually, indicating a reduction in agriculture’s carbon intensity. Livestock will account for 80 percent of this global increase. Neverthe- less, without additional efforts, this slowdown will still fall short of what the agricultural sector could and should do to contribute to the Paris Agreement targets for fighting climate change. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029 pro- vides evidence-based inputs to support policy makers in the development of a resilient global food system to address the long-term challenges of food security, clima- te change, rural livelihoods and global resource use. The Agricultural Outlook is a collaborative effort of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Develop- ment) and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), prepared with input from experts in their member governments and specialist commodity organisa- tions. It provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural and fish commodity markets at national, regional and global levels.