Miller Magazine Issue: 128 August 2020

86 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / August 2020 WHEAT The market is sensitive to crop condition adjustments and production forecasts. Prices are slowing growth, seasonal decline is expected. Stock quotes drop- ped to the lowest levels in recent weeks. In Russia, the area under wheat has been officially incre- ased. SovEkon, which included this in the production estimate, left the last forecast at 79.7MMT so far. IKAR raised expectations by 1.5MMT. Rusagrotrans reduced wheat produc- tion to 77.5MMT despi- te record acreage since 1982. The wheat har- vest in the Center will be a record, the Volga - almost a record, but in the Urals and Siberia - the lowest since 2012, and in the south - since 2014. There was no revaluation of production in Ukraine. Exports, including lineups, at the beginning of the week were: Russia - 2,416MMT against 3,217MMT last year, Ukraine - 831.6KMT against 1,118MMT a year earlier. The pace of exports to the EU also lags behind last year. On the photo - Ukrainian wheat, Central Ukraine, the yield of the surveyed field is 6.6-6.8 MT / ha at a moistu- re content of 12.3%, protein is 11.5%. The Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan expects the gross harvest of grain and legumes in 2020 at the le- vel of 20.5 million tons, which is 10.8% more compared to the previous forecast and 17.8% more than last year. Previous expectations were 18.5 million. IGC renew estimation of world wheat production. Their forecast does not correspond to the ex- pectations of market players and the reports of local analysts. In particular, Argentine experts see the potential for the harvest at 18.19MMT. In addition, the fo- recast does not include changes in the state of crops in a number of other countries - Ka- zakhstan, Turkey, North African countries rema- ined unchanged. It is possible that the next revaluation will chan- ge the expectations of world production. In turn, MARS rai- sed its expectations for average yields in almost all EU countries. The numbers for Romania and Bulgaria are qu- estionable, with local analysts reporting extremely low production. GASC bought the largest lot of wheat since the begin- ning of 2018 for September 2020 with a payment delay of 180 days. Basically, grain of Russian origin was bought, the price is $ 1.6 higher than the previous tender for Rus- sian grain. Ukraine has sold a boat of wheat to Mexico; the grain is being loaded in one of the Ukrainian ports. Last season, Mexico bought 280kMT of Ukrainian wheat. Iraq expects to become self-sufficient in wheat, having removed more than 5 MMT in the current season (from August to August). The need for wheat is 4.5 MMT per year. Last year, the state bought 4.9MMT from manufacturers. Information on purchases of Black Sea wheat from Pakistan has not changed, the number of contracted boats (from 5 and more) is still not confirmed on the market, the average price of wheat is $ 235 CnF. Berdyansk port, Ukraine, does not work after a storm and flooding. Work is underway to res- tore infrastructure. VEGOILS MARKET The United States sold a record 4.13MMT of soybeans in the first half of July. 23% old and 77% new, in line with the 10-year trend. COFCO suspends work of one of the processing plants in Argentina due to the outbreak of co-