Miller Magazine Issue: 128 August 2020

87 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / August 2020 ronavirus. Research and Markets esti- mates that the demand for soybeans is estimated to reach 124MMT by 2024. The gap between supply and demand could be around 94MMT in 2024, whi- ch is worth more than $ 40 million. Today Brazil is the main exporter, squ- eezing the USA out of the market. Ac- cording to IMEA, producers have alre- ady sold over 98% of the 19/20 crop. Farmers keep their remaining stocks, awaiting price increases at the end of the year. US dollar weakens trading at 5.15 / $ 1. China's rapeseed stocks are still be- low average and are declining seaso- nally. Domestic prices for rapeseed reached a 7-year high, which is expla- ined by good processing margins and demand for meal from pork producers. Production in Ukraine may be reduced due to the reduction of the harvested area due to drought and low yield - about 2 t / ha today. EU demand is par- tially met by Canadian canola. Exports to the EU will offset the fall in canola trade with China, according to the Ca- nadian Grain Commission and DTN. According to market operators, there are problems with oil content in Ukraine. Rape is highly dependent on palm oil prices, which have been on the rise since April, despite a pullback at the beginning of the trading week. The completion of the BR-163 highway in northern Brazil reduced the cost of transporting grain and soybe- ans from northern Mato Grosso to ports on the Amazon River by about 25% (from $ 45 / t to $ 33 / t for soybe- ans). Drivers can now make 6-8 trips per month. Sunflower production in the Black Sea region, accor- ding to Sunseedman (Turkey) : Moldova received more or less favorable rains. Taking into account the stable area (415 ha), the analyst predicts that the size of the new harvest may be at least 950 kMT (19/20 - 950 kMT). Turkey: 1.525 MMT versus 1.6 in 19/20 against the background of 635 thousand hectares against 650 in 19/20 due to good climatic conditions. Cleaning has be- gun. Romania: Reduction of areas from 1.2 million hectares to 1.175 million hectares, forecast of 3MMT production (19/20 - 2.85). Bulgaria: Reduction of areas from 815 thousand hectares to 810, production estima- te - 2 MMT (19/20 - 1.85). Russia: Even if we take into account the slightly increased area under crops from 8.55 million hectares to 8.6 million hectares, it is most likely that production will be below the record level of the last season (19/20 -15.5 MMT) at 14, 75 - 15.25MMT. The official area in the Russian Federation is 8.443 million hectares. Ukraine: an increase in acreage from 6.35 million hectares to 6.6 million hectares, pro- duction forecast - 16.5 MMT. The official