Miller Magazine Issue: 128 August 2020

88 MARKET ANALYSIS MILLER / August 2020 area is 6.37 million hectares. The results of the crop tour in the Kiev, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy and Chernigov regions of Ukraine Maxigrain provides of a good harvest poten- tial, but according to market reports, the southern regi- ons are already on fire. In the photo - sunflower on the border of Ukraine and Belarus, sown on April 11, 2020. MACROECONOMY TRENDS BASED ON WEEKER USD The inverse correlation between oil prices and the dol- lar has reached a record high in the past eight years. For two months now, oil prices have remained in one place, despite the noticeable growth of other raw material as- sets. The fundamental picture in the energy market is de- teriorating, and only the depreciation of the dollar keeps oil prices at current levels, Bloomberg writes. The Turkish lira reacted rather calmly to the decision of the Bank of Turkey to keep the rate at 8.25% following the meeting on July 23, but this week stable trading in a narrow range ended. The lira fell to a record low against the euro, while USD/TRY soared from levels around 6.87 to 6.95 in a few minutes. The pair very quickly returned to the range of recent weeks, but the evidence that the Turkish Central Bank, albeit for a short time, lost control of the situation, left an unpleasant impression on investors. The surge in volatility reminded market participants that the stability of USD/TRY since mid-June not only reflects the active intervention of the regulator, but is largely a consequence of the general weakening of the dollar. The euro retrea- ted from its two-year high on Tuesday, as dollar sales we- akened ahead of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting, fol- lowing which investors expect the Central Bank's forecast to be confirmed. Changes in monetary policy are unlikely, but traders are pondering a shift in leadership focus on the Fed's perspective at a meeting that begins Tuesday. Part of the dollar's weakness stemmed from political controversy over the next bailout package for the US economy. The Republican leadership of the U.S. Senate has submitted a proposal for the next $ 1 trillion coro- navirus relief package. This bill is called the "HEALS Act". But investors are worried about the details of the bill and the fact that the aid amounts are much less than those advocated by the Democrats in the House of Rep- resentatives who passed their bill in May. The Republican proposal was immediately rejected as Democrats argue it was too limited. The euro last traded 0.2% lower to $ 1.1732, down from a two-year high of $ 1.1781 hit a day earlier. The dollar has collapsed since May and has been completely crushed in recent days, as US failures with the coronavirus and declining returns have channeled inves- tors into other assets.